ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS
You should carefully consider the risk factors described below, as well as all other information available to you, before making an investment in our common stock or other securities.
The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting adverse economic conditions have had, and we expect are likely to continue to have, a negative impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had widespread impacts on people, economies, businesses and financial markets. The continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is highly uncertain and subject to change, and also depends on factors beyond our knowledge or control, including the ultimate duration and severity of this outbreak, third-party actions taken to contain its spread and mitigate its public health effects, and possible federal or state legislative actions related to utility operations, including disconnect moratoriums, or additional economic stimulus packages. In addition, we cannot predict the ongoing and ultimate impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on our customers, suppliers, vendors, and other business partners, and each of their financial conditions; however, any material effect on these parties could adversely impact us.
Economic - The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be an evolving situation with an extended disruption of economic activity. While we cannot predict the ultimate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, our financial results in 2020 were impacted by lower sales volumes, an increase in reserves for uncollectible accounts and an increase in interest expense. There can be no assurance that any decrease in revenues resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic will return to previous levels in the future. Decreases in per capita income and level of disposable income, increased unemployment or a decline in consumer confidence have had and could continue to have an adverse effect on our business. Certain of our customers have been, and may in the future be, required to close down or operate at a lower capacity, which has adversely impacted our business in the short term and may in the future materially adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, we continue to monitor the capital markets. If conditions deteriorate and disrupt the capital markets and we need to access capital, there can be no assurance that we will be able to obtain such financing on commercially reasonable terms or at all.
Operational - While the COVID-19 pandemic has not caused material disruptions to our operations, it could in the future as a result of, among other things, quarantines, increased cyber risk due to employees working from home, worker absenteeism as a result of illness or other factors, social distancing measures and other travel, health-related, business or other restrictions. If a significant percentage of our workforce is unable to work, including because of illness, travel restrictions, or government mandates in connection with pandemics or disease outbreaks, our operations may be negatively affected. In addition, remote work arrangements introduce operational risk, including but not limited to cybersecurity risks.
For similar reasons, the COVID-19 pandemic may similarly adversely impact our suppliers and their manufacturers. Depending on the extent and duration of COVID-19 pandemic's effects on our business and operations and the business and operations of our suppliers, our costs could increase, including our costs to address the health and safety of personnel, and our ability to obtain certain supplies or services.
National, state and local governments have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic in a variety of ways, including, without limitation, by declaring states of emergency, restricting people from gathering in groups or interacting within a certain physical distance (i.e., social distancing), and in certain cases, ordering businesses to close or limit operations or people to stay at home. Although we provide critical infrastructure services and are permitted to continue to operate in each of our jurisdictions, there may be restrictions imposed on how we operate, such as disconnect moratoriums.
Any such workforce implications, supply chain disruptions, and / or limitations or closures may impact our ability to achieve our capital investment program and could have a material adverse impact on our ability to serve our customers and on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic may also have the effect of heightening risks discussed below, any of which could have a material effect on us.
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Regulatory, Legislative and Legal Risks
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Our profitability is dependent on our ability to recover the costs of providing energy and utility services to our customers and earn a return on our capital investment in our utility operations. We are subject to potential unfavorable state and federal regulatory outcomes. To the extent our incurred costs are deemed imprudent by the applicable regulatory commissions or certain regulatory mechanisms are not available, we may not recover some of our costs, which could adversely impact our results of operations and liquidity.
We provide service at rates established by several regulatory commissions. Rates are generally set through a process called a rate review (or rate case) in which the utility commission analyzes our costs incurred during a historical test year and decides whether they may be included in our rates. Rate reviews can be highly contested proceedings. There is no guarantee that the costs we seek to recover in future rates will be allowed. There is also typically a significant lag between the time we incur a cost and recover that cost in rates.
In addition to rate cases, our cost tracking mechanisms are a significant component of how we recover our costs. Trackers can also be highly contested dockets and, as with a rate case, there is no guarantee that the regulatory commission will approve our request to recover costs. We have recently received, and may in the future receive, unfavorable rulings from the MPSC. During the fourth quarter of 2020, the MPSC disallowed approximately $9.4 million of power costs for the July 1, 2018 to June 30, 2019 time period related to an intermittent outage at Colstrip Units 3 and 4 and application of a change in state laws addressing cost sharing of power costs. There can be no assurance that the MPSC will allow recovery of costs in the future, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial results.
Rate regulation is premised on providing an opportunity to earn a reasonable rate of return on invested capital. In a continued low interest rate environment there has been downward pressure on return on equity. There also can be no assurance that the applicable regulatory commission will judge all of our costs to have been prudently incurred or that the regulatory process in which rates are determined will always result in rates that will produce full recovery of such costs. In addition, each regulatory commission sets rates based in part upon their acceptance of an allocated share of total utility costs. When commissions adopt different methods to calculate inter-jurisdictional cost allocations, some costs may not be recovered. For instance, our Montana electric utility is regulated by the MPSC and the FERC. Differing schedules and regulatory practices between the MPSC and FERC expose us to the risk that we may not recover our costs due to timing of filings and issues such as cost allocation methodologies. Thus, the rates we are allowed to charge may or may not match our costs at any given time. Adverse regulatory rulings could have an adverse impact on our results of operations and materially affect our ability to meet our financial obligations, including debt payments and the payment of dividends on our common stock.
We are subject to changing federal and state laws and regulations. Congress and state legislatures may enact legislation that adversely affects our operations and financial results.
We are subject to regulations under a wide variety of U.S. federal and state regulations and policies. Regulation affects almost every aspect of our business. Changes to federal and state laws and regulations are continuous and ongoing and the new Biden Administration, the new U.S. Congress, and new state legislatures and state administrations may enact and implement new laws and regulations that could adversely and materially affect us. There can be no assurance that laws, regulations and policies will not be changed in ways that result in significant impacts to our business. We cannot predict future changes in laws and regulations, how they will be implemented and interpreted, or the ultimate effect that this changing environment will have on us. Any changes may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.
We are subject to extensive and changing environmental laws and regulations, including legislative and regulatory responses to climate change, with which compliance may be difficult and costly.
Our operations are subject to laws and regulations imposed by federal, state and local government authorities regarding climate change, the environment, air and water quality, GHG emissions, protection of natural resources, migratory birds and
other wildlife, solid waste disposal, coal ash and other environmental considerations. We believe that we are in compliance with environmental regulatory requirements.
However, laws and regulations to which we must adhere change, and the new Biden Administration’s agenda represents a significant shift in environmental and energy policy, focusing on reducing GHG emissions and climate change issues. This new direction is reflected in several Executive Orders that President Biden issued in January 2021. Together, these orders reflect climate change issues and GHG reductions as central areas of focus for domestic and international regulations, orders and policies. In addition, a parallel focus on reducing GHG emissions is reflected in legislation introduced in March 2021 in the U.S. House of Representatives, called the CLEAN Future Act. We expect other legislation to be introduced and considered by the U.S. House and the U.S. Senate focusing on environmental and energy policy.
These initiatives will likely lead to new and revised environmental laws and regulations. Any such changes, as well as any enforcement actions or judicial decisions regarding those laws and regulations, could affect our costs and the manner in which we conduct our business and could require us to make substantial additional capital expenditures or abandon certain projects.
In addition, although previous attempts by the EPA to regulate GHG emissions from coal-fired plants have not succeeded, it is widely expected that the Biden Administration and/or the U.S. Congress will develop an alternative plan for reducing GHG emissions from coal-fired plants and methane emissions from natural gas operations. As GHG and/or methane regulations are implemented, it could result in additional compliance costs that could affect our future results of operations and financial position if such costs are not recovered through regulated rates. Complying with the CO2 emission performance standards, and with other future environmental rules, may make it economically impractical to continue operating all or a portion of our jointly owned facilities or for individual owners to participate in their proportionate ownership of the coal-fired generating units. This could lead to significant impacts to customer rates for recovery of plant improvements and / or closure related costs and costs to procure replacement power. In addition, these changes could impact system reliability due to changes in generation sources.
To the extent that costs exceed our estimated environmental liabilities, or we are not successful in recovering remediation costs or costs to comply with the proposed or any future changes in rules or regulations, our results of operations and financial position could be adversely affected. Certain environmental laws and regulations also provide for substantial civil and criminal fines for noncompliance which, if imposed, could result in material costs or liabilities.
In addition, there is a risk of environmental damage claims from private parties or government entities. We may be required to make significant expenditures in connection with the investigation and remediation of alleged or actual spills, personal injury or property damage claims, and the repair, upgrade or expansion of our facilities to meet future requirements and obligations under environmental laws.
Early closure of our owned and jointly owned electric generating facilities due to environmental risks, litigation or public policy changes could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and liquidity.
While our Company-wide electric supply portfolio is over 65 percent carbon-free, it does include coal-fired resources. Environmental advocacy groups, certain investors and other third parties oppose the operation of fossil-fuel generation, expressing concerns about the environmental and climate-related impacts from fossil fuels. This opposition may increase in scope and frequency depending on a number of variables, including the course of Federal and State laws and environmental regulations and the financial resources devoted to opposition efforts. These risks include litigation against us due to GHG or other emissions or coal combustion residuals disposal and storage; activist shareholder proposals; and increased activism before our regulators. We cannot predict the effect that any such opposition may have on our ability to operate and recover the costs of our generating facilities. In addition, defense costs associated with litigation can be significant and an adverse outcome could require substantial capital expenditures and could possibly require payment of substantial penalties or damages. Such payments or expenditures could affect results of operations, financial condition or cash flows if such costs are not recovered through regulated rates.
Early closure of our generation facilities due to economic conditions, environmental regulations and / or litigation could result in regulatory impairments, increased cost of operations and inability to serve our customers in periods of peak demand. If recovery of our remaining investment in such facilities and the costs associated with early closure, including decommissioning, remediation, reclamation, and restoration are not recovered from customers, it could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations.
Colstrip - As part of the settlement of litigation brought by the Sierra Club and the Montana Environmental Information Center against the owners and operator of Colstrip, the owners of Units 1 and 2 agreed to shut down those units no later than July 2022. In January 2020, the owners of Units 1 and 2 closed those two units. We do not have ownership in Units 1 and 2, and
decisions regarding those units, including their shut down, were made by their respective owners. The six owners of Units 3 and 4 currently share the operating costs pursuant to the terms of an operating agreement among them, the Ownership and Operation Agreement. Costs of common facilities were historically shared among the owners of all four units. With the closure of Units 1 and 2, we are incurring additional operating costs with respect to our interest in Unit 4 and expect to experience a negative impact on our transmission revenue due to reduced amounts of energy transmitted across our transmission lines. We would expect to incorporate any reduction in revenue in our next general electric rate filing, resulting in lower revenue credits to certain customers.
The remaining depreciable life of our investment in Colstrip Unit 4 is through 2042. Recovery of costs associated with the closure of the facility is subject to MPSC approval. Three of the joint owners of Units 3 and 4 are subject to regulation in Washington and in May 2019, the Washington state legislature enacted a statute mandating Washington electric utilities to “eliminate coal-fired resources from [their] allocation of electricity” on or before December 31, 2025, after which date they may no longer include their share of coal-fired resources in their regulated electric supply portfolio. As a result of the Washington legislation, four of the six joint owners of Units 3 and 4 requested the operator prepare a 2021 budget reflecting closure of Units 3 and 4 by 2025, and alternately a closure of Unit 3 by 2025 and a closure of Unit 4 by 2027. Differing viewpoints on closure dates delayed approval of the 2021 budget, until it was approved on March 22, 2021. We anticipate the annual budgeting process for Units 3 and 4 may raise similar efforts to tie budgeting to a closure date, resulting in future budgets that may not be sufficient to maintain the reliability of Units 3 and 4.
While we believe closure requires each owner’s consent, there are differences among the owners as to this issue under the Ownership and Operation Agreement. On March 12, 2021, we initiated an arbitration under the Ownership and Operation Agreement, which is intended to determine whether closure of Units 3 and 4 can be accomplished without each joint owner's consent and to clarify the obligations of the joint owners to continue to fund operations until all joint owners agree on closure. On April 13, 2021 the Montana Legislature passed Senate Bill 265, which provides, “An agreement concerning venue involving an electrical generation facility in this state is not valid unless the agreement requires that arbitration occur within the state before a panel of three arbitrators…” Senate Bill 265 must be signed by the Governor, at which time it will become effective. On April 14, 2021, before the parties completed discussions regarding the number of arbitrators, the process to select an arbitrator or arbitrators and the details of the arbitration process, four of the six joint owners filed a Petition to Compel Arbitration (Petition), under Washington State’s Uniform Arbitration Act in Superior Court of the State of Washington for Spokane County. The Petition seeks an order compelling the very arbitration we initiated. The Petition appears focused on the number of arbitrators and the venue under which the arbitration will be held. At the present, we cannot predict an outcome of the Petition or effect of Senate Bill 265, if it is signed by the Governor, on the arbitration we initiated, other than expecting the arbitration process will be delayed as a result.
In response to a letter from several non-governmental organizations, the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission (WUTC) issued a Notice of Opportunity to Respond to Request to Initiate Investigation on April 13, 2021, in which it sought comment on whether it should “‘initiate a proceeding to investigate Colstrip’s ongoing expenses’ resulting in a ‘clear order or determination from the [WUTC] that continued funding to maintain and operate Colstrip is not consistent with prudent utility practice.’” While we cannot predict whether the WUTC will initiate an investigation, this reflects that efforts to close Colstrip Units 3 and 4 continue.
In addition, we have joint ownership in and operate the associated 500 kV transmission system. The closure of generation at Colstrip may impact the operation of this 500 kV system, and the joint owners may have differing needs with regard to ongoing operation of this system. The 500 kV transmission system is an integral, essential part of our overall transmission system in Montana in order to maintain reliability, regardless of the status of the generation facilities.
Increased risks of regulatory penalties could negatively impact our business.
We must comply with established reliability standards and requirements including Critical Infrastructure Protection Reliability Standards, which apply to North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) functions. NERC reliability standards protect the nations’ bulk power system against potential disruptions from cyber and physical security breaches. The FERC, NERC, or a regional reliability organization may assess penalties against any responsible entity that violates their rules, regulations or standards. Penalties for the most severe violations can reach as high as approximately $1.2 million per violation, per day. If a serious reliability incident or other incidence of noncompliance did occur, it could have a material adverse effect on our operating and financial results.
Additionally, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, Occupational Safety and Health Administration and other federal or state agencies have penalty authority. In the event of serious incidents, these agencies have become more active in pursuing penalties. Some states have the authority to impose substantial penalties. If a serious reliability or safety incident did occur, it could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or cash flows.
Federally mandated purchases of power from QFs, and integration of power generated from those projects in our system, may increase costs to our customers and decrease system reliability, limit our ability to make generation investments and adversely affect our business.
We are generally obligated under federal law to purchase power from certain QF projects, regardless of current load demand, availability of lower cost generation resources, transmission availability or market prices. These resources are primarily intermittent, non-dispatchable generation whose prices may be in excess of market prices during times of lower customer demand, and may not be able to generate electricity during peak times. These resources typically do not meet the requirements set forth in our supply plans for resource procurement. These requirements to purchase supply that is inconsistent with customer need may have several impacts, including increasing the likelihood and frequency that we will be required to reduce output from owned generation resources and that we will need to upgrade or build additional transmission facilities to serve QF projects. Either of these results would increase costs to customers. Further, balancing load and power generation on our system is challenging, and we expect that operational costs will increase as a result of integration of these intermittent, non-dispatchable generation projects. If we are unable to timely recover those costs through our PCCAM or otherwise, those increased costs may negatively affect our liquidity, results of operations and financial condition.
In addition, requirements to procure power from these sources could impact our ability to make generation investments depending upon the number and size of QF contracts we ultimately enter into. The cost to procure power from these QFs may not be a cost effective resource for customers, or the type of generation resource needed, resulting in increased supply costs that are inconsistent with resource plans developed based on a lowest cost and least risk basis while placing upward pressure on overall customer bills. This may impact our investment plans and financial condition. Finally, the requirement to procure power from these QF sources may impact our transmission system and require additional transmission facilities to be developed in order to integrate these resources, which also can impact overall customer bills.
Our electric and natural gas operations involve numerous activities that may result in accidents, fires, system outages and other operating risks and costs that are unique to our industry.
Inherent in our electric transmission and distribution and natural gas transportation and distribution operations are a variety of hazards and operating risks, such as breakdown or failure of equipment or processes, interruptions in fuel supply, labor disputes, operator error, and catastrophic events such as fires, electric contacts, leaks, explosions, floods and intentional acts of destruction. These risks could cause a loss of human life, facility shutdown or significant damage to property, loss of customer load, environmental pollution, impairment of our operations, and substantial financial losses to us and others. For our natural gas lines located near populated areas, including residential areas, commercial business centers, industrial sites and other public gathering areas, the level of potential damages resulting from these risks could be significant.
Our electric distribution and transmission lines and facilities are exposed to many threats that may impact our infrastructure, as discussed above. These include severe weather and intentional acts that may cause our lines to fail. In addition, tree mortality rates have increased resulting in hazard trees located inside or outside our lines’ rights of way. Hazard trees are those trees that are structurally unsound and could fall into our lines if the trees failed. We are facing challenges to address these trees. The risk of fires is exacerbated in forested areas where there has been a significant increase in the quantity of standing dead and dying timber, primarily as a result of beetle infestation, increasing the risk that such trees may fall from either inside or outside our right-of-way into a power line igniting a fire. Fires alleged to have been caused by our system could expose us to significant penalties and / or damage claims on theories such as strict liability, negligence, gross negligence, trespass, inverse condemnation, and others.
For our electric generating facilities, operational risks include facility shutdowns due to breakdown or failure of equipment or processes, interruptions in fuel supply, labor disputes, operator error, catastrophic events such as fires, explosions, floods, and intentional acts of destruction or other similar occurrences affecting the electric generating facilities; and operational changes necessitated by environmental legislation, litigation or regulation. The loss of a major electric generating facility would require us to find other sources of supply or ancillary services, if available, and expose us to higher purchased power costs and potential litigation which may not be recovered from customers.
We maintain insurance against some, but not all, of these risks and losses. The occurrence of any of these events not fully covered by insurance could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations.
Cyber and physical attacks, threats of terrorism and catastrophic events that could result from terrorism, or individuals and/or groups attempting to disrupt our business, or the businesses of third parties, may affect our operations in unpredictable ways and could adversely affect our liquidity and results of operations. Failure to maintain the security of personally identifiable information could adversely affect us.
Business Operations - We are subject to the potentially adverse operating and financial effects of terrorist acts and threats, as well as cyber attacks, physical security breaches and other disruptive activities of individuals or groups, and theft of our critical infrastructure information. Our generation, transmission and distribution facilities are deemed critical infrastructure and provide the framework for our service infrastructure. Cyber crime, which includes the use of malware, phishing attempts, computer viruses, and other means for disruption or unauthorized access has increased in frequency, scope, and potential impact in recent years. Our assets and the information technology systems on which they depend could be direct targets of, or indirectly affected by, cyber attacks and other disruptive activities, including those that impact third party facilities that are interconnected to us. Any significant interruption of these assets or systems could prevent us from fulfilling our critical business functions including delivering energy to our customers, and sensitive, confidential and other data could be compromised.
Security threats continue to evolve and adapt. We and our third-party vendors have been subject to, and will likely continue to be subject to, attempts to gain unauthorized access to systems, to confidential data, or to disrupt operations. One such third party vendor is SolarWinds Corporation (SolarWinds), a provider of IT monitoring and management products and services, including its Orion Platform products, which are used by over 300,000 businesses including ours. SolarWinds experienced a cyberattack that appears likely to be the result of a supply chain attack by an outside nation state. Since being made aware of the breach we have been analyzing our technology platforms and monitoring for signs of potential intrusions. We have also been reaching out to our vendors, suppliers and contractors requesting that they take appropriate measures. To date there are no signs we have been victimized by this attack. None of these attempts has individually or in the aggregate resulted in a security incident with a material impact on our financial condition or results of operations. However, despite implementation of security and control measures, there can be no assurance that we will be able to prevent the unauthorized access of our systems and data, or the disruption of our operations, either of which could have a material impact.
These events, and governmental actions in response, could result in a material decrease in revenues and significant additional costs to repair and insure assets, and could adversely affect our operations by contributing to the disruption of supplies and markets for electricity, natural gas, oil and other fuels. These events could also impair our ability to raise capital by contributing to financial instability and reduced economic activity.
Personally Identifiable Information - Our information systems and those of our third-party vendors contain confidential information, including information about customers and employees. Customers, shareholders, and employees expect that we will adequately protect their personal information. The regulatory environment surrounding information security and privacy is increasingly demanding. A data breach involving theft, improper disclosure, or other unauthorized access to or acquisition of confidential information could subject us to penalties for violation of applicable privacy laws, claims by third parties, and enforcement actions by government agencies. It could also reduce the value of proprietary information, and harm our reputation.
We maintain insurance against some, but not all, of these risks and losses. The occurrence of any of these events not fully covered by insurance could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations.
Weather and weather patterns, including normal seasonal and quarterly fluctuations of weather, as well as extreme weather events that might be associated with climate change, could adversely affect our ability to manage our operational requirements to serve our customers, and ultimately adversely affect our results of operations and liquidity.
Our electric and natural gas utility business is seasonal, and weather patterns can have a material impact on our financial performance. Demand for electricity and natural gas is often greater in the summer and winter months associated with cooling and heating. Because natural gas is heavily used for residential and commercial heating, the demand for this product depends heavily upon weather patterns throughout our market areas, and a significant amount of natural gas revenues are recognized in the first and fourth quarters related to the heating season. Accordingly, our operations have historically generated less revenue and income when weather conditions are milder in the winter and cooler in the summer. Unusually mild winters or cool summers could adversely affect our results of operations and financial position. In addition, exceptionally hot summer weather or unusually cold winter weather could add significantly to working capital needs to fund higher than normal supply purchases to meet customer demand for electricity and natural gas. Our sensitivity to weather volatility is significant due to the absence of regulatory mechanisms, such as those authorizing revenue decoupling, lost margin recovery, and other innovative rate designs.
Severe weather impacts, including but not limited to, blizzards, thunderstorms, high winds, microbursts, fires, tornadoes and snow or ice storms can disrupt energy generation, transmission and distribution. We derive a significant portion of our energy supply from hydroelectric facilities, and the availability of water can significantly affect operations. Higher temperatures may decrease the Montana snowpack and impact the timing of run-off and may require us to purchase replacement power. Dry conditions also increase the threat of fires, which could threaten our communities and electric distribution and transmission lines and facilities. In addition, fires that are alleged to have been caused by our system could expose us to substantial property damage and other claims. Any damage caused as a result of fires could negatively impact our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows.
There is also a concern that the physical risks of climate change could include changes in weather conditions, such as changes in the amount or type of precipitation and extreme weather events. Climate change and the costs that may be associated with its impacts have the potential to affect our business in many ways, including increasing the cost incurred in providing electricity and natural gas, impacting the demand for and consumption of electricity and natural gas (due to change in both costs and weather patterns), and affecting the economic health of the regions in which we operate.
Extreme weather conditions, especially those of prolonged duration, create high energy demand on our own and/or other systems and increase the risk we may be unable to reliably serve customers, causing brownouts and/or blackouts of our electric systems, and loss of gas supply. Risk of losing electricity or gas supply during extreme weather carries significant consequences as without our services our customers may be subjected to dire circumstances. Additionally, extreme weather conditions may raise market prices as we buy short-term energy to serve our own system. To the extent the frequency of extreme weather events increase, this could increase our cost of providing service. In addition, we may not recover all costs related to mitigating these physical and financial risks.
Our electric and natural gas portfolios rely significantly on market purchases. This exposure adversely affects our ability to manage our operational requirements to serve our customers, while exposing us to market volatility, which ultimately could adversely affect our results of operations and liquidity.
We are obligated to supply power to retail customers and certain wholesale customers and procure natural gas to supply fuel for our natural gas fired generation. Our need to acquire flexible energy supply and capacity in the market to meet our electric and natural gas load serving obligations exposes us to certain risks including the ability to reliably serve customers and significant uncertainty in the cost of supply, which may not be recoverable. We rely upon a combination of base-load supply from our owned generation and market purchases to serve customers. In Montana, we have significant projected generation capacity deficits and negative reserve margins. Based on current estimates, we forecast that our portfolio will be 725 MW short by 2025, considering expiring contracts and a modest increase in customer demand. Approximately 46 percent of our peak electric requirements are served through market purchases. Montana has been a net exporter of electric generation and we have relied upon Montana's excess generation for grid reliability and to physically serve customers. A significant number of base-load generation facilities, which may also serve to meet peak requirements, in the state and region have been retired or are scheduled to be retired in the next five to ten years. This includes Colstrip Units 1 and 2, representing 614 MWs of generation on a capacity basis, which ceased operations in January 2020. A decrease in the state and region’s electric capacity may impair the reliability of the grid, particularly during peak demand periods. There can be no assurance that there will be available counterparties to contract with to serve our customers' needs, or that these counterparties will fulfill their obligations to us. There is also no assurance that the transmission capacity required to import market purchases will be available on transmission systems owned by us or by third parties. In addition, the suppliers under these agreements may experience financial or operational problems that inhibit their ability to fulfill their obligations to us. These conditions could result in an inability to physically deliver electricity to our customers. Losing electric service during extreme conditions carries significant consequences, as without our services our customers may be subjected to dire circumstances.
Commodity pricing is an inherent risk component of our business operations and our financial results. Even though rate regulation is premised on full recovery of prudently incurred costs and a reasonable rate of return on invested capital, there can be no assurance that our costs are recoverable as discussed above. The prevailing market prices for electricity may fluctuate substantially over relatively short periods of time, potentially adversely impacting our results of operations, financial condition and cash flows due to our need for market purchases and the sharing component of the Montana PCCAM.
In addition, our natural gas system serves both retail customers and the needs of natural gas fired electric generation. The natural gas system has capacity constraints that expose us to risks to be able to deliver natural gas during periods of peak demand.
Fluctuations in actual weather conditions, generation availability, transmission constraints, and generation reserve margins may all have an impact on market prices for energy and capacity and the electricity consumption of our customers on a given
day. Extreme weather conditions may force us to purchase electricity in the short-term market on days when weather is unexpectedly severe, and the pricing for market energy may be significantly higher on such days than the cost of electricity in our existing generation and contracts. Unusually mild weather conditions could leave us with excess power which may be sold in the market at a loss if the market price is lower than the cost of electricity in our existing contracts.
Our revenues, results of operations and financial condition are impacted by customer growth and usage in our service territories and may fluctuate with current economic conditions or response to price increases. We are also impacted by market conditions outside of our service territories related to demand for transmission capacity and wholesale electric pricing.
Our revenues, results of operations and financial condition are impacted by customer growth and usage, which can be impacted by a number of factors, including the voluntary reduction of consumption of electricity and natural gas by our customers in response to increases in prices and demand-side management programs, economic conditions impacting decreases in their disposable income, and the use of distributed generation resources or other emerging technologies for electricity. Advances in distributed generation technologies that produce power, including fuel cells, micro-turbines, wind turbines and solar cells, may reduce the cost of alternative methods of producing power to a level competitive with central power station electric production. Customer-owned generation itself reduces the amount of electricity purchased from utilities and may have the effect of inappropriately increasing rates generally and increasing rates for customers who do not own generation, unless retail rates are designed to collect distribution grid costs across all customers in a manner that reflects the benefit from their use. Such developments could affect the price of energy, could affect energy deliveries as customer-owned generation becomes more cost-effective, could require further improvements to our distribution systems to address changing load demands and could make portions of our electric system power supply and transmission and/or distribution facilities obsolete prior to the end of their useful lives. Such technologies could also result in further declines in commodity prices or demand for delivered energy.
Decreasing use per customer (driven, for example, by appliance and lighting efficiency) and the availability of cost-effective distributed generation, put downward pressure on load growth. Our most recent resource plans include an expected annual load growth assumption of 0.4 percent in Montana and 0.7 percent in South Dakota, which reflects low customer and usage increases, offset in part by these load reduction measures. Reductions in usage, attributable to various factors could materially affect our results of operations, financial position, and cash flows through, among other things, reduced operating revenues, increased operating and maintenance expenses, and increased capital expenditures, as well as potential asset impairment charges or accelerated depreciation and decommissioning expenses over shortened remaining asset useful lives.
Demand for our Montana transmission capacity fluctuates with regional demand, fuel prices and weather related conditions. The levels of wholesale sales depend on the wholesale market price, market participants, transmission availability, the availability of generation, and the development of the Western Energy Imbalance Market and our expected participation, among other factors. Declines in wholesale market price, availability of generation, transmission constraints in the wholesale markets, or low wholesale demand could reduce wholesale sales. These events could adversely affect our results of operations, financial position and cash flows.
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Liquidity and Financial Risks
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Our plans for future expansion through the acquisition of assets, capital improvements to existing assets, generation investments, and transmission grid expansion involve substantial risks.
Acquisitions include a number of risks, including but not limited to, regulatory approval, regulatory conditions, additional costs, the assumption of material liabilities, the diversion of management’s attention from daily operations to the integration of the acquisition, difficulties in assimilation and retention of employees, and securing adequate capital to support the transaction. The regulatory process in which rates are determined may not result in rates that produce full recovery of our investments, or a reasonable rate of return. Uncertainties also exist in assessing the value, risks, profitability, and liabilities associated with certain businesses or assets and there is a possibility that anticipated operating and financial synergies expected to result from an acquisition do not develop. The failure to successfully integrate future acquisitions that we may choose to undertake could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Our business strategy also includes significant investment in capital improvements and additions to modernize existing infrastructure, generation investments and transmission capacity expansion. The completion of generation and natural gas investments and transmission projects are subject to many construction and development risks, including, but not limited to,
risks related to permitting, financing, regulatory recovery, escalating costs of materials and labor, meeting construction budgets and schedules, and environmental compliance. In addition, these capital projects may require a significant amount of capital expenditures. We cannot provide certainty that adequate external financing will be available to support such projects. Additionally, borrowings incurred to finance construction may adversely impact our leverage, which could increase our cost of capital.
We must meet certain credit quality standards. If we are unable to maintain investment grade credit ratings, our liquidity, access to capital and operations could be materially adversely affected.
A downgrade of our credit ratings to less than investment grade could adversely affect our liquidity. Certain of our credit agreements and other credit arrangements with counterparties require us to provide collateral in the form of letters of credit or cash to support our obligations if we fall below investment grade. Also, a downgrade below investment grade could hinder our ability to raise capital on favorable terms and would increase our borrowing costs. Higher interest rates on borrowings with variable interest rates could also have an adverse effect on our results of operations.
Poor investment performance of plan assets of our defined benefit pension and postretirement benefit plans, in addition to other factors impacting these costs, could unfavorably impact our results of operations and liquidity.
Our costs for providing defined benefit retirement and postretirement benefit plans are dependent upon a number of factors. Assumptions related to future costs, return on investments and interest rates have a significant impact on our funding requirements related to these plans. These estimates and assumptions may change based on economic conditions, actual stock market performance and changes in governmental regulations. Without sustained growth in the plan assets over time and depending upon interest rate changes as well as other factors noted above, the costs of such plans reflected in our results of operations and financial position and cash funding obligations may change significantly from projections.
Our obligation to include a minimum annual quantity of power in our Montana electric supply portfolio at an agreed upon price per MWH could expose us to material commodity price risk if certain QFs under contract with us do not perform during a time of high commodity prices, as we are required to make up the difference. In addition, we are subject to price escalation risk with one of the largest QF contracts.
As part of a stipulation in 2002 with the MPSC and other parties, we agreed to include a minimum annual quantity of power in our Montana electric supply portfolio at an agreed upon price per MWH through June 2029. This obligation is reflected in the electric QF liability, which reflects the unrecoverable costs associated with these specific QF contracts per the stipulation. The annual minimum energy requirement is achievable under normal operations of these facilities, including normal periods of planned and forced outages. However, to the extent the supplied power for any year does not reach the minimum quantity set forth in the settlement, we are obligated to purchase the difference from other sources. The anticipated source for any shortfall is the wholesale market, which would subject us to commodity price risk if the cost of replacement power is higher than contracted rates.
In addition, we are subject to price escalation risk with one of the largest contracts included in the electric QF liability due to variable contract terms. In recording the electric QF liability, we estimated an annual escalation rate of three percent over the remaining term of the contract (through June 2024). To the extent the annual escalation rate exceeds three percent, our results of operations, cash flows and financial position could be adversely affected.