ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our unaudited consolidated financial statements and the accompanying notes included in Part I, Item 1. “Financial Statements” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and our audited consolidated financial statements and the accompanying notes included in Part II, Item 8 in our 2021 Form 10-K. References herein to “Dynex,” the “Company,” “we,” “us,” and “our” include Dynex Capital, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries, unless the context otherwise requires. In addition to current and historical information, the following discussion and analysis contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to our future business, financial condition or results of operations. For a description of certain factors that may have a significant impact on our future business, financial condition or results of operations, see “Forward-Looking Statements” at the end of this discussion and analysis.
For more information about our business including our operating policies, investment philosophy and strategy, financing and hedging strategies, and other important information, please refer to Part I, Item 1 of our 2021 Form 10-K.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
Extreme interest rate volatility and spread widening continued to define 2022 during the third quarter, particularly in September, as the global economy and markets transition from an extended period of fiscal and monetary easing policies to rapidly tightening financial conditions. Central banks across the globe are fighting inflation while struggling to balance growth and financial stability. As anticipated, the withdrawal of liquidity and raising of interest rates by global central banks has impacted the price of U.S. Treasuries, MBS and generally all risk assets. The entire yield curve continues to shift higher, and spread widening is at or near historic levels, now standing within a few basis points of the peak seen in March of 2020. Our hedging activities help insulate the Company’s book value against rising interest rates, but do not protect the Company from widening spreads.
The charts below show the range of U.S. Treasury rates and information regarding market spreads as of and for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Market Spreads as of: | | Change in Spreads 3Q22 | | Change in Spreads Year to Date |
Investment Type: | | September 30, 2022 | | June 30, 2022 | | December 31, 2021 | | |
Agency RMBS: (1) | | | | | | | | | | |
2.0% coupon | | 40 | | | 28 | | | 3 | | | 12 | | | 37 | |
2.5% coupon | | 46 | | | 38 | | | 11 | | | 8 | | | 35 | |
3.0% coupon | | 50 | | | 38 | | | 22 | | | 12 | | | 28 | |
3.5% coupon | | 60 | | | 42 | | | 19 | | | 18 | | | 41 | |
4.0% coupon | | 48 | | | 25 | | | 7 | | | 23 | | | 41 | |
4.5% coupon | | 55 | | | 25 | | | 10 | | | 30 | | | 45 | |
Agency DUS (Agency CMBS)(2) | | 91 | | | 67 | | | 31 | | | 24 | | | 60 | |
Freddie K AAA IO (Agency CMBS IO)(2) | | 205 | | | 170 | | | 105 | | | 35 | | | 100 | |
AAA CMBS IO (Non-Agency CMBS IO)(2) | | 300 | | | 225 | | | 112 | | | 75 | | | 188 | |
(1)Option adjusted spreads (“OAS”) are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data. The Company regularly updates the third-party model used, so OAS shown for prior periods may differ from previous disclosures.
(2)Data represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued securities and is sourced from JP Morgan.
Third Quarter 2022 Performance Summary
Our total economic return for the third quarter of 2022 was a loss of $(2.17) per common share, a decline of (12.9)% from book value per common share as of June 30, 2022. This loss is comprised of a $(2.56) decline in book value offset by dividends declared of $0.39 per common share for the third quarter. The loss in book value resulted primarily from declines in the fair value of our investments exceeding the gains on our interest rate hedges, mostly due to the spread widening mentioned and shown in the table above. The decline in the market value of the Company's investment portfolio, net of its hedges, was the primary driver of the Company's comprehensive loss to common shareholders of $(99.7) million, or $(2.20) per common share, for the period. In addition, as the Federal Reserve continues increasing the U.S. Federal Funds Rate in its efforts to tame inflation, the Company's borrowing costs have increased. As a result, net interest income for the third quarter declined approximately 50% from the second quarter of 2022. Comprehensive results for the third quarter of 2022 were also impacted by non-recurring severance expenses of $2.7 million, or $0.06 per common share, related to the CFO transition in August 2022. The non-recurring severance expenses and lower net interest income were also the primary drivers of the $(0.16) decline in the Company's earnings available for distribution (“EAD”), a non-GAAP measure, to $0.24 per common share for the third quarter of 2022.
Throughout 2022, we have realized substantial gains on our interest rate hedges. Our comprehensive loss for the third quarter of 2022 included $149.6 million of these gains, which are excluded from our calculation of EAD. However, our REIT taxable income for the third quarter of 2022 includes an estimated benefit of approximately $9.4 million, or $0.21 per common share, from the amortization of accumulated deferred tax hedge gains, which have grown to $512.9 million as of September 30, 2022 compared to $27.0 million as of December 31, 2021. This benefit is distributable to common shareholders as part of the Company’s ordinary income calculations. Additional information regarding the expected impact of deferred tax hedge amortization on our estimated REIT taxable income is discussed in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” within this Item 2.
The following table provides details about the changes in our financial position during the third quarter of 2022:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Changes in Fair Value | | Comprehensive Income | | Common Book Value Rollforward | | Per Common Share |
Common shareholders’ equity, June 30, 2022 (1) | | | | | $ | 730,865 | | | $ | 16.79 | |
Net interest income | | | $ | 7,122 | | | | | |
TBA drop income | | | 16,282 | | | | | |
G & A and other operating expenses | | | (10,579) | | | | | |
Preferred stock dividends | | | (1,923) | | | | | |
Changes in fair value: | | | | | | | |
MBS and loans | $ | (191,272) | | | | | | | |
TBAs | (197,590) | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | 281,827 | | | | | | | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | 630 | | | | | | | |
Interest rate swaptions | (4,202) | | | | | | | |
Total net change in fair value | | | (110,607) | | | | | |
Comprehensive loss to common shareholders | | | | | (99,705) | | | (2.20) | |
Capital transactions: | | | | | | | |
Net proceeds from stock issuance | | | | | 46,561 | | | 0.03 | |
Common dividends declared | | | | | (17,955) | | | (0.39) | |
Common shareholders' equity, September 30, 2022 (1) | | | | | $ | 659,766 | | | $ | 14.23 | |
(1)Common shareholders' equity is total shareholders' equity less the aggregate liquidation preference of the Company's preferred stock of $111,500.
Current Outlook
Market conditions remain volatile as participants anticipate the Federal Reserve will continue its quantitative tightening through at least the end of 2022. We believe liquidity and flexibility are necessary for navigating through this macroeconomic environment. Subsequent to September 30, 2022, the Company has lowered risk by reducing the size of its investment portfolio and adding to its interest rate hedges in preparation for multiple interest rate scenarios.
While Agency RMBS mortgage spreads are at historically wide levels, we believe there are compelling opportunities for investment. In the medium and long term, Agency RMBS are likely to remain attractive since they have little to no credit risk, are backed by U.S. properties, and are currently yielding higher than average with forward yields projecting even higher. There are several paths to recovery of recent drops in market value of MBS. As higher mortgage rates curtail new home purchases and refinance activity coupled with seasonal slowdown in loan production, we believe MBS supply will likely fall. In the event of a recession, demand for risk-free assets like Agency RMBS will increase. Any certainty about Federal Reserve policy will likely reduce volatility in the market, which should help MBS spreads to tighten. Longer-term, if and when the Federal Reserve decides to reverse its policy and begins reducing the Federal Funds Rate, the yield curve is likely to steepen, establishing a high-return environment for a levered Agency investor.
FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
Our investment portfolio, which consists primarily of Agency RMBS and TBA securities, has increased approximately 47% (based on amortized cost) since December 31, 2021. Because we have been maintaining a highly liquid and lower leverage profile, we have been able to deploy capital as spreads widened into assets with higher forward returns. Though we do not expect spreads to tighten in the near term and they may widen further, in the intermediate term, we expect book value will recover as investors return to MBS markets and technicals improve. The following chart compares the composition of our MBS portfolio including TBA securities as of the dates indicated:
The following tables compare our fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments including TBA dollar roll positions as of the dates indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | September 30, 2022 |
| | Par/Notional | | Amortized Cost/ Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | | Fair Value (2)(3) | | Weighted Average |
Coupon | | | | | Loan Age (in months)(4) | | 3 Month CPR (4)(5) | | Estimated Duration (6) | | Market Yield (4)(7) |
30-year fixed-rate: | | ($s in thousands) | | | | | | | | |
2.0% | | $ | 1,216,522 | | | $ | 1,233,755 | | | $ | 990,613 | | | 20 | | 7.6 | % | | 7.20 | | 4.68 | % |
2.5% | | 673,133 | | | 700,586 | | | 570,627 | | | 25 | | 8.9 | % | | 6.74 | | 4.78 | % |
4.0% | | 333,469 | | | 337,653 | | | 312,433 | | | 22 | | 5.8 | % | | 5.80 | | 4.97 | % |
4.5% | | 815,020 | | | 811,695 | | | 780,145 | | | 1 | | — | % | | 5.39 | | 5.13 | % |
5.0% | | 125,900 | | | 128,219 | | | 122,752 | | | 1 | | — | % | | 4.39 | | 5.38 | % |
TBA 2.5% | | 400,000 | | | 345,750 | | | 335,906 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 7.59 | | n/a |
TBA 3.5% | | 800,000 | | | 729,313 | | | 719,406 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 6.66 | | n/a |
TBA 4.0% | | 1,539,000 | | | 1,484,523 | | | 1,426,765 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 5.71 | | n/a |
TBA 4.5% | | 780,000 | | | 753,353 | | | 742,009 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 5.12 | | n/a |
Total | | $ | 6,683,044 | | | $ | 6,524,847 | | | $ | 6,000,656 | | | 15 | | 6.1 | % | | 6.13 | | | 4.89 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | December 31, 2021 |
| | Par/Notional | | Amortized Cost/ Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | | Fair Value (2)(3) | | Weighted Average |
Coupon | | | | | Loan Age (in months)(4) | | 3 Month CPR (4)(5) | | Estimated Duration (6) | | Market Yield (4)(7) |
30-year fixed-rate: | | ($s in thousands) | | | | | | | | |
2.0% | | $ | 1,311,069 | | | $ | 1,330,353 | | | $ | 1,312,190 | | | 11 | | | 8.0 | % | | 6.69 | | 1.98 | % |
2.5% | | 1,165,810 | | | 1,215,841 | | | 1,199,092 | | | 15 | | | 11.3 | % | | 5.83 | | 2.11 | % |
4.0% | | 162,868 | | | 167,713 | | | 175,493 | | | 45 | | | 34.1 | % | | 3.09 | | 2.30 | % |
TBA 2.0% | | 965,000 | | | 957,600 | | | 961,080 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 6.54 | | n/a |
TBA 2.5% | | 190,000 | | | 193,563 | | | 193,585 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 5.23 | | n/a |
15-year fixed-rate: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
TBA 1.5% | | 375,000 | | | 375,259 | | | 376,523 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 4.58 | | n/a |
Total | | $ | 4,169,747 | | | $ | 4,240,329 | | | $ | 4,217,963 | | | 15 | | 11.2 | % | | 6.01 | | | 2.06 | % |
(1)Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(2)Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(3)TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information. (4)TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(5)Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents the 3-month CPR of Agency RMBS held as of date indicated.
(6)Duration measures the sensitivity of a security's price to the change in interest rates and represents the percent change in price of a security for a 100-basis point increase in interest rates. We calculate duration using third-party financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different estimates of duration for the same securities.
(7)Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the date indicated and assuming zero volatility.
Over the past nine months, we have been diversifying the coupons in our Agency RMBS and TBA portfolios in order to mitigate the impact of higher financing rates on our net interest income as well as to minimize book value loss due to higher interest rates and spread widening. Though we realized losses for some of the premium we paid on lower coupon securities sold during this shift, recent purchases of higher coupon Agency RMBS have been at a discount to par, which will be accreted into income over time as principal payments are received.
The remainder of our MBS portfolio is mostly comprised of Agency CMBS, Agency CMBS IO, and non-Agency CMBS IO. Our Agency CMBS and Agency CMBS IO are backed by loans collateralized by multifamily properties and our non-Agency CMBS IO, which were all originated prior to 2018, are backed by loans collateralized by a number of different property types, including retail, office, multifamily, hotel, and other properties. In the current macroeconomic environment, we are not actively purchasing CMBS or CMBS IO as these securities are experiencing the most spread widening, and declining originations in the multifamily and commercial markets are impacting supply.
The following table provides certain information regarding our CMBS and CMBS IO as of the dates indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| September 30, 2022 |
| Amortized Cost | | Fair Value | | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | | WAVG Coupon (2) | | WAVG Market Yield (3) |
Agency CMBS | $ | 137,987 | | | $ | 130,384 | | | 5.1 | | 3.23 | % | | 4.20 | % |
Agency CMBS IO | 189,231 | | | 177,478 | | | 6.8 | | 0.56 | % | | 5.07 | % |
Non-Agency CMBS IO | 68,187 | | | 65,693 | | | 2.2 | | 0.98 | % | | 5.91 | % |
Total | $ | 395,405 | | | $ | 373,555 | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| December 31, 2021 |
| Amortized Cost | | Fair Value | | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | | WAVG Coupon (2) | | WAVG Market Yield (3) |
Agency CMBS | $ | 177,211 | | | 184,847 | | | 5.3 | | 3.25 | % | | 2.02 | % |
Agency CMBS IO | 199,523 | | | 208,858 | | | 6.1 | | 0.43 | % | | 2.01 | % |
Non-Agency CMBS IO | 98,674 | | | 100,561 | | | 2.8 | | 0.86 | % | | 2.81 | % |
Total | $ | 475,408 | | | $ | 494,266 | | | | | | | |
(1) Represents the weighted average life remaining in years based on contractual cash flows as of the date indicated. |
(2) Represents the weighted average coupon based on par (notional for CMBS IO) as of the date indicated. |
(3) Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the date indicated and assuming zero volatility. |
Repurchase Agreements
We have not experienced any difficulty in securing financing with any of our counterparties, and our repurchase agreement counterparties have not indicated any concerns regarding leverage or credit. We expect our financing costs will continue to increase throughout 2022 as the Federal Reserve is expected to continue increasing the Federal Funds Rate. Please refer to Note 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q as well as “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” contained within this Item 2 for additional information relating to our repurchase agreement borrowings. Derivative Assets and Liabilities
We have increased our interest rate hedging portfolio since December 31, 2021 by adding a net notional of $1.3 billion in short positions of U.S. Treasury futures. We have shifted to a more neutral position to better protect book value in flattening or inverted yield curve environments while using the type of hedges that allow for a greater degree of flexibility should rates sharply decline due to an exogenous event. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our interest rate derivative instruments as well as “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” in Item 3 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The discussion below includes both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures that management utilizes in its analysis of financial and operating performance. Please read the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this section for additional important information about these financial measures.
Three Months Ended September 30, 2022 Compared to the Three Months Ended June 30, 2022
The following table summarizes the results of operations for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| Three Months Ended |
$s in thousands | September 30, 2022 | | June 30, 2022 |
Net interest income | $ | 7,122 | | | $ | 14,073 | |
Realized loss on sale of investments, net | (70,967) | | | (18,550) | |
Unrealized loss on investments, net | (69,197) | | | (65,103) | |
Gain on derivative instruments, net | 96,947 | | | 106,412 | |
General and administrative expenses | (10,146) | | | (7,201) | |
Other operating expenses, net | (433) | | | (295) | |
Preferred stock dividends | (1,923) | | | (1,923) | |
Net (loss) income to common shareholders | (48,597) | | | 27,413 | |
Other comprehensive loss | (51,108) | | | (60,910) | |
Comprehensive loss to common shareholders | $ | (99,705) | | | $ | (33,497) | |
Net Interest Income
The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Three Months Ended |
| September 30, 2022 | | June 30, 2022 |
($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) | | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | $ | 14,819 | | | $ | 2,779,765 | | | 2.13 | % | | $ | 12,860 | | | $ | 2,733,199 | | | 1.88 | % |
Agency CMBS | 98 | | | 165,280 | | | 2.18 | % | | 1,259 | | | 173,647 | | | 2.87 | % |
CMBS IO (5) | 4,126 | | | 265,507 | | | 5.24 | % | | 4,003 | | | 273,427 | | | 4.69 | % |
Non-Agency MBS and other investments | 140 | | | 3,842 | | | 7.21 | % | | 86 | | | 4,404 | | | 6.66 | % |
MBS and loans | 19,183 | | | $ | 3,214,394 | | | 2.40 | % | | 18,208 | | | $ | 3,184,677 | | | 2.18 | % |
Cash equivalents | 1,221 | | | | | | | 127 | | | | | |
Total interest income | $ | 20,404 | | | | | | | $ | 18,335 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Repurchase agreement financing | (13,282) | | | 2,398,268 | | | (2.17) | % | | (4,262) | | | 2,486,217 | | | (0.68) | % |
Net interest income/net interest spread | $ | 7,122 | | | | | 0.23 | % | | $ | 14,073 | | | | | 1.50 | % |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Cost of funds is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
Net interest income and net interest spread declined for the three months ended September 30, 2022 compared to the three months ended June 30, 2022 as the recent increases in the Federal Funds Rate continue to impact the cost of financing our investment portfolio. The increase in interest expense compared to the prior quarter was partially offset by an increase in interest income resulting from purchases of higher yielding Agency RMBS as well as an increase of $1.1 million in interest income earned from cash equivalents. The effective yield on our Agency CMBS declined primarily due to an early pay off of a $44.0 million bond.
Adjusted Net Interest Income. Please refer to the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for additional information about non-GAAP financial measures used by management to evaluate results of operations.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Three Months Ended |
| September 30, 2022 | | June 30, 2022 |
($s in thousands) | Amount | | Rate | | Amount | | Rate |
Net interest income/spread | $ | 7,122 | | | 0.23 | % | | $ | 14,073 | | | 1.50 | % |
Add: TBA drop income (1) (2) | 16,282 | | | 0.89 | % | | 11,074 | | | 0.34 | % |
Adjusted net interest income/spread | $ | 23,404 | | | 1.12 | % | | $ | 25,147 | | | 1.84 | % |
(1) TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(2) The impact of TBA drop income on adjusted net interest spread includes the implied average funding cost of TBA dollar roll transactions during the periods indicated.
Our notional balance of TBA securities increased to $3.5 billion with an average coupon of 3.83% as of September 30, 2022 from $3.3 billion with an average coupon of 3.47% as of June 30, 2022. The implied net interest spread on our TBA dollar roll transactions declined 68 basis points to 1.98% for the three months ended September 30, 2022 compared to 2.40% for the prior quarter. Dollar roll specialness, which is the difference between the implied financing rate on TBA dollar roll transactions and the repurchase agreement financing rate for our specified pools of Agency RMBS, increased 16 basis points since the second quarter of 2022.
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
The fair value of our investments (including TBA securities accounted for as derivative instruments) is impacted by a number of factors including, among others, market volatility, changes in credit spreads, spot and forward interest rates, actual and anticipated prepayments, and supply/demand dynamics which are in turn impacted by, among other things, interest rates, capital flows, economic conditions, and government policies and actions, such as purchases and sales by the Federal Reserve. Because we use derivative instruments to economically hedge the impact of changing interest rates on our investment portfolio (including TBA securities), we evaluate our results by comparing how much the gain (loss) on our interest rate hedges offsets the gain (loss) on our MBS and TBAs for any given period. Generally, increasing interest rates will cause a decline in the fair value of our MBS and TBAs and an increase in the fair value of our interest rate hedges. The extent to which these gains and losses offset one another depends on several factors, including, but not limited to, our asset allocation, coupon selection, type of interest rate hedges, and the timing of asset and derivative purchases, sales, maturities, and terminations.
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Three Months Ended |
| | September 30, 2022 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | (70,967) | | | $ | (65,723) | | | $ | (42,112) | | | $ | (178,802) | |
Agency CMBS | | — | | | (1,432) | | | (1,242) | | | (2,674) | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | (2,033) | | | (7,747) | | | (9,780) | |
Other non-Agency and loans | | — | | | (9) | | | (7) | | | (16) | |
Subtotal | | (70,967) | | | (69,197) | | | (51,108) | | | (191,272) | |
TBA securities (1) | | (78,237) | | | (103,071) | | | — | | | (181,308) | |
Net loss on investments | | $ | (149,204) | | | $ | (172,268) | | | $ | (51,108) | | | $ | (372,580) | |
| | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | 98,659 | | | $ | 183,168 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 281,827 | |
Interest rate swaptions (2) | | 50,940 | | | (55,142) | | | — | | | (4,202) | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | | — | | | 630 | | | — | | | 630 | |
Net gain on interest rate hedges | | $ | 149,599 | | | $ | 128,656 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 278,255 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net gain (loss) | | $ | 395 | | | $ | (43,612) | | | $ | (51,108) | | | $ | (94,325) | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Three Months Ended |
| | June 30, 2022 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | (18,550) | | | $ | (64,398) | | | $ | (52,738) | | | $ | (135,686) | |
Agency CMBS | | — | | | — | | | (3,886) | | | (3,886) | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | (711) | | | (4,258) | | | (4,969) | |
Other non-Agency and loans | | — | | | 6 | | | (28) | | | (22) | |
Subtotal | | (18,550) | | | (65,103) | | | (60,910) | | | (144,563) | |
TBA securities (1) | | (87,722) | | | 17,157 | | | — | | | (70,565) | |
Net loss on investments | | $ | (106,272) | | | $ | (47,946) | | | $ | (60,910) | | | $ | (215,128) | |
| | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | 250,377 | | | $ | (99,902) | | | $ | — | | | $ | 150,475 | |
Interest rate swaptions (2) | | — | | | 26,502 | | | — | | | 26,502 | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | | — | | | — | | | — | | | — | |
Net gain on interest rate hedges | | $ | 250,377 | | | $ | (73,400) | | | $ | — | | | $ | 176,977 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net gain (loss) | | $ | 144,105 | | | $ | (121,346) | | | $ | (60,910) | | | $ | (38,151) | |
(1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
(2)The Company did not hold any interest rate swaptions as of September 30, 2022. The unrealized loss of $(55.1) million shown for the three months ended September 30, 2022 represents the reversal of the unrealized gain recorded prior to the maturity date of the contract.
Increasing interest rates and spread widening on the majority of our assets resulted in declines in the fair value of our MBS and TBA securities during both the three months ended September 30, 2022 and June 30, 2022. We sold a portion of our lower coupon Agency RMBS and TBAs during the three months ended September 30, 2022 and June 30, 2022, and re-invested the sale proceeds into higher coupon securities. The realized losses on the sales of Agency RMBS and TBA securities may not reduce our taxable income for 2022 and instead, may be carried forward for a period of up to five years to apply against any capital gains realized during the same five year period, if any.
Conversely, as a result of the increase in interest rates, we realized gains when we rolled forward our U.S. Treasury futures during the three months ended September 30, 2022 and June 30, 2022, as well as upon expiration of interest rate swaptions during the three months ended September 30, 2022. The gains on our interest rate hedges are recognized for GAAP purposes in the periods realized, but for tax purposes these gains are deferred and amortized into taxable income over the original contractual term of the derivative instrument (though recognition may be accelerated if the underlying debt instrument originally hedged is terminated or paid off). Please refer to “Liquidity and Capital Resources-Dividends” for additional information regarding the recognition and distribution of these deferred tax hedge gains in future periods.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses for the three months ended September 30, 2022 increased $2.9 million compared to the three months ended June 30, 2022 due primarily to severance costs related to the Company's CFO transition in August 2022.
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2022 Compared to the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2021
Net Interest Income
The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Nine Months Ended |
| September 30, |
| 2022 | | 2021 |
($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) | | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | $ | 40,165 | | | $ | 2,751,460 | | | 1.95 | % | | $ | 25,090 | | | $ | 2,009,728 | | | 1.66 | % |
Agency CMBS | 2,650 | | | 171,380 | | | 2.24 | % | | 5,467 | | | 220,312 | | | 3.17 | % |
CMBS IO (5) | 11,686 | | | 275,032 | | | 5.36 | % | | 12,007 | | | 339,212 | | | 4.57 | % |
Non-Agency MBS and other investments | 318 | | | 4,386 | | | 8.68 | % | | 410 | | | 6,625 | | | 7.86 | % |
MBS and loans | $ | 54,819 | | | $ | 3,202,258 | | | 2.26 | % | | $ | 42,974 | | | $ | 2,575,877 | | | 2.19 | % |
Cash equivalents | 1,348 | | | | | | | 26 | | | | | |
Total interest income | $ | 56,167 | | | | | | | $ | 43,000 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Repurchase agreement financing | (19,292) | | | 2,562,072 | | | (0.99) | % | | (4,228) | | | 2,282,140 | | | (0.24) | % |
Net interest income/net interest spread | $ | 36,875 | | | | | 1.27 | % | | $ | 38,772 | | | | | 1.95 | % |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Cost of funds is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
Net interest income and net interest spread declined for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2021 due to the higher Federal Funds Rate impacting the cost of repurchase agreement financing of our investment portfolio. The increase in interest expense/cost of funds was partially offset by higher interest income due to a larger average balance of higher yielding investments outstanding during the nine months ended September 30, 2022 compared to the same period in the prior year.
Adjusted Net Interest Income. Please refer to the section “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for additional information about non-GAAP financial measures used by management to evaluate results of operations.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Nine Months Ended |
| September 30, |
| 2022 | | 2021 |
($s in thousands) | Amount | | Rate | | Amount | | Rate |
Net interest income/spread | $ | 36,875 | | | 1.27 | % | | $ | 38,772 | | | 1.95 | % |
Add: TBA drop income (1) (2) | 37,084 | | | 0.38 | % | | 34,065 | | | 0.10 | % |
Adjusted net interest income/spread | $ | 73,959 | | | 1.65 | % | | $ | 72,837 | | | 2.05 | % |
(1) TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(2) The impact of TBA drop income on adjusted net interest spread includes the implied average funding cost of TBA dollar roll transactions during the periods indicated.
Adjusted net interest income increased for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2021 due to our increased investment in TBAs. Implied net interest spread on TBA dollar roll transactions for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 was 2.21% compared to 2.13% for the same period in 2021. Dollar roll specialness for the nine months ended September 30, 2022, which is the difference between the implied financing rate on TBA dollar roll transactions and the repurchase agreement financing rate for our specified pools of Agency RMBS, declined 61 basis points for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 compared to the same period in the prior year.
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Nine Months Ended |
| | September 30, 2022 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | (89,517) | | | $ | (240,322) | | | $ | (167,884) | | | $ | (497,723) | |
Agency CMBS | | — | | | (1,432) | | | (13,807) | | | (15,239) | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | (3,874) | | | (21,596) | | | (25,470) | |
Non-Agency other | | — | | | — | | | (71) | | | (71) | |
Mortgage loans held for investment and other assets | | | | 77 | | | — | | | 77 | |
Subtotal | | (89,517) | | | (245,551) | | | (203,358) | | | (538,426) | |
TBA securities (1) | | (252,414) | | | (93,619) | | | — | | | (346,033) | |
Net loss on investments | | $ | (341,931) | | | $ | (339,170) | | | $ | (203,358) | | | $ | (884,459) | |
| | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | 435,020 | | | $ | 286,216 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 721,236 | |
Interest rate swaptions | | 50,940 | | | (3,202) | | | — | | | 47,738 | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | | — | | | 630 | | | — | | | 630 | |
Net gain on interest rate hedges | | $ | 485,960 | | | $ | 283,644 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 769,604 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net gain (loss) | | $ | 144,029 | | | $ | (55,526) | | | $ | (203,358) | | | $ | (114,855) | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Nine Months Ended |
| | September 30, 2021 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | 3,938 | | | $ | (3,080) | | | $ | (52,640) | | | $ | (51,782) | |
Agency CMBS | | 2,767 | | | — | | | (9,374) | | | (6,607) | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | (10) | | | 2,140 | | | 2,130 | |
Other non-Agency and loans | | — | | | 109 | | | (151) | | | (42) | |
Subtotal | | 6,705 | | | (2,981) | | | (60,025) | | | (56,301) | |
TBA securities (1) | | 1,717 | | | (21,472) | | | — | | | (19,755) | |
Net loss on investments | | $ | 8,422 | | | $ | (24,453) | | | $ | (60,025) | | | $ | (76,056) | |
| | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | (18,013) | | | $ | 61,686 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 43,673 | |
Interest rate swaptions (2) | | 34,000 | | | 8,686 | | | — | | | 42,686 | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | | (7,339) | | | 5,198 | | | — | | | (2,141) | |
Net gain on interest rate hedges | | $ | 8,648 | | | $ | 75,570 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 84,218 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net gain (loss) | | $ | 17,070 | | | $ | 51,117 | | | $ | (60,025) | | | $ | 8,162 | |
(1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
(2)The Company did not hold any interest rate swaptions as of September 30, 2022. The unrealized loss of $(3.2) million shown for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 represents the reversal of the unrealized gain recorded prior to the maturity date of the contract.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2022, the decline in fair value of our investment portfolio exceeded the gains from our interest rate hedging portfolio by $(114.9) million. Although the Company realized significant gains on its hedge portfolio, spread widening, particularly in September, reduced the value of our investments. In contrast, most of our assets experienced overall spread tightening for the nine months ended September 30, 2021, and though interest rates in the mid-range and longer-term portions of the yield curve steepened sharply in the first quarter of 2021, they modestly flattened somewhat through the second and third quarters of 2021. As a result, our interest rate hedges outperformed our investments, ending the first nine months of 2021 with a net increase of $8.2 million.
As mentioned previously in the discussion of the three months ended September 30, 2022 and June 30, 2022, we have sold lower coupon Agency RMBS and TBAs. For the nine months ended September 30, 2022, we have capital losses of $(341.9) million, which may not be used to reduce taxable income in 2022. Likewise, the majority of realized gains on our interest rate hedges of $486.0 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2022 will not be recognized in taxable income for 2022. Please refer to “Liquidity and Capital Resources-Dividends” for additional information regarding the recognition, timing and distribution of these deferred tax hedge gains in future periods.
General and Administrative Expenses
General and administrative expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 increased $6.7 million compared to the nine months ended September 30, 2021 due to higher compensation expenses, the majority of which related to severance costs for the Company's CFO transition in August 2022, and to the ongoing implementation of a new investment accounting system.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In evaluating the Company’s financial and operating performance, management considers book value per common share, total economic return (loss) to common shareholders, and other operating results presented in accordance with GAAP as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures, which include the following: earnings available for distribution (“EAD”) to common shareholders (including per common share), adjusted net interest income and the related metric adjusted net interest spread. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures may be useful to investors because they are viewed by management as a measure of the investment portfolio’s return based on the effective yield of its investments, net of financing costs and, with respect to EAD, net of other normal recurring operating income/expenses. Drop income generated by TBA dollar roll positions, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net" on the Company's consolidated statements of comprehensive income, is included in these non-GAAP financial measures because management views drop income as the economic equivalent of net interest income (interest income less implied financing cost) on the underlying Agency security from trade date to settlement date.
However, these non-GAAP financial measures are not a substitute for GAAP earnings and may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other REITs because they may not be calculated in the same manner. Furthermore, though EAD is one of several factors our management considers in determining the appropriate level of distributions to common shareholders, it should not be utilized in isolation, and it is not an accurate indication of the Company’s REIT taxable income or its distribution requirements in accordance with the Tax Code.
Reconciliations of EAD to common shareholders and adjusted net interest income to the related GAAP financial measures are provided below.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Three Months Ended |
Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures: | | September 30, 2022 | | June 30, 2022 |
($s in thousands except per share data) | | | | |
Comprehensive loss to common shareholders | | $ | (99,705) | | | $ | (33,497) | |
Less: | | | | |
Change in fair value of investments (1) | | 191,272 | | | 144,563 | |
Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net (2) | | (80,665) | | | (95,338) | |
EAD to common shareholders | | $ | 10,902 | | | $ | 15,728 | |
Average common shares outstanding | | 45,347,852 | | | 39,190,251 | |
EAD per common share | | $ | 0.24 | | | $ | 0.40 | |
| | | | |
Net interest income | | $ | 7,122 | | | $ | 14,073 | |
TBA drop income (3) | | 16,282 | | | 11,074 | |
Adjusted net interest income | | $ | 23,404 | | | $ | 25,147 | |
General and administrative expenses | | (10,146) | | | (7,201) | |
Other operating expense, net | | (433) | | | (295) | |
Preferred stock dividends | | (1,923) | | | (1,923) | |
EAD to common shareholders | | $ | 10,902 | | | $ | 15,728 | |
| | | | |
Adjusted net interest spread (4) | | 1.12 | % | | 1.84 | % |
(1)Amount includes realized and unrealized gains and losses recorded in net income and other comprehensive income due to changes in the fair value of the Company’s MBS and other investments.
(2)Amount includes unrealized gains and losses from changes in fair value of derivatives and realized gains and losses on terminated derivatives and excludes TBA drop income.
(3)TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(4)The reconciliation for adjusted net interest spread to net interest spread is shown in “Results of Operations - Adjusted Net Interest Income”.
Currently, we are primarily using U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our borrowing costs and book value per common share. In the past, we used interest rate swaps to hedge interest rate risk and included the net periodic interest benefit/cost of those instruments in each of the non-GAAP measures mentioned above. Management is using U.S. Treasury futures instead of interest rate swaps because these U.S. Treasury futures generally have lower margin requirements and offer more flexibility in the current rapidly changing interest rate environment. During the current year, the Company has realized substantial gains on its U.S. Treasury futures as well as other interest rate hedges which are included in GAAP earnings, but are not included in EAD, adjusted net interest income or adjusted net interest spread. Furthermore, because these U.S. Treasury futures and other derivative instruments were designated as tax hedges, the realized gains will be amortized into REIT taxable income over the next several years. We estimate our deferred tax hedge gains to be $512.9 million as of September 30, 2022, which is a significant increase from $27.0 million as of December 31, 2021. For the three months ended September 30, 2022, the tax benefit of our hedge gains is approximately $9.4 million, or $0.21 per common share, which is not included in the Company’s calculation of EAD, but is distributable to common shareholders as part of the Company’s ordinary income calculations. Additional information regarding the expected impact of deferred tax hedge amortization on our estimated REIT taxable income is discussed in “Liquidity and Capital Resources.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity include borrowings under repurchase arrangements and monthly principal and interest payments we receive on our investments. Additional sources may also include proceeds from the sale of investments, equity offerings, and net payments received from counterparties for derivative instruments. We use our liquidity to purchase investments, to pay amounts due on our repurchase agreement borrowings, and to pay our operating expenses and dividends on our common and preferred stock. We also use our liquidity to meet margin requirements for our repurchase agreements and derivative transactions, including TBA contracts, under the terms of the related agreements. We may also periodically use liquidity to repurchase shares of the Company’s stock.
Our liquidity fluctuates based on our investment activities, our leverage, capital raising activities, and changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments. Our most liquid assets include unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unencumbered Agency RMBS, CMBS, and CMBS IO. As of September 30, 2022, our most liquid assets were $505.2 million compared to $533.1 million as of December 31, 2021. We are continuing to maintain higher levels of available liquidity and lower absolute levels of leverage to protect our book value and to provide us greater financial flexibility against market volatility, which we believe is likely to continue for the near-term, especially given potential risk events on the horizon, such as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening measures, the impact on global markets stemming from global central bank policies, and the war between Russia and Ukraine.
We continuously assess the adequacy of our liquidity under various scenarios based on changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments due to market factors such as changes in the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads, lender haircuts, and prepayment speeds. In performing these analyses, we will also consider the current state of the fixed income markets and the repurchase agreement markets in order to determine if market forces such as supply-demand imbalances or structural changes to these markets could change the liquidity of MBS or the availability of financing. We also communicate frequently with our counterparties. We have not experienced any material changes in the terms of our repurchase agreements with our counterparties, and they have not indicated to us any concerns regarding access to liquidity.
Our perception of the liquidity of our investments and market conditions significantly influences our targeted leverage. In general, our leverage will increase if we view the risk-reward opportunity of higher leverage on our capital outweighs the risk to our liquidity and book value. Our leverage, which we calculate using total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBA long positions, increased to 8.5x shareholders’ equity as of September 30, 2022 from 5.7x as of December 31, 2021 primarily as a result of our increased investment in TBA securities. We include the cost basis of our TBA securities in evaluating our leverage because it is possible under certain market conditions that it may be
uneconomical for us to roll a TBA long position into future months, which may result in us having to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and use cash or other financing sources to fund our total purchase commitment.
Our repurchase agreement borrowings are principally uncommitted with terms renewable at the discretion of our lenders and generally have original terms to maturity of overnight to six months, though in some instances we may enter into longer-dated maturities depending on market conditions. We seek to maintain unused capacity under our existing repurchase agreement credit lines with multiple counterparties, which helps protect us in the event of a counterparty's failure to renew existing repurchase agreements. As part of our continuous evaluation of counterparty risk, we maintain our highest counterparty exposures with broker dealer subsidiaries of regulated financial institutions or primary dealers.
The amount outstanding for our repurchase agreement borrowings will typically fluctuate in any given period as it is dependent upon a number of factors, but particularly the extent to which we are active in buying and selling securities, including the volume of activity in dollar roll transactions versus buying specified pools. For example, our average balance of repurchase agreement borrowings outstanding during the third quarter of 2022 was significantly lower than maximum balance outstanding during the same period as well as the balance outstanding as of September 30, 2022 because we purchased $847.8 million of Agency RMBS toward the end of the third quarter of 2022. The following table presents information regarding the balances of our repurchase agreement borrowings as of and for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Repurchase Agreements |
($s in thousands) | Balance Outstanding As of Quarter End | | Average Balance Outstanding For the Quarter Ended | | Maximum Balance Outstanding During the Quarter Ended |
September 30, 2022 | $ | 3,009,269 | | | $ | 2,398,268 | | | $ | 3,082,138 | |
June 30, 2022 | 2,202,648 | | | 2,486,217 | | | 2,949,918 | |
March 31, 2022 | 2,952,802 | | | 2,806,212 | | | 2,973,475 | |
December 31, 2021 | 2,849,916 | | | 2,701,191 | | | 2,873,523 | |
September 30, 2021 | 2,527,065 | | | 2,529,023 | | | 2,590,185 | |
June 30, 2021 | 2,321,043 | | | 2,155,200 | | | 2,415,037 | |
March 31, 2021 | 2,032,089 | | | 2,158,121 | | | 2,437,163 | |
December 31, 2020 | 2,437,163 | | | 2,500,639 | | | 2,594,683 | |
September 30, 2020 | 2,594,683 | | | 2,984,946 | | | 3,314,991 | |
June 30, 2020 | 3,314,991 | | | 2,580,296 | | | 4,408,106 | |
March 31, 2020 | 4,408,106 | | | 4,701,010 | | | 4,917,731 | |
December 31, 2019 | 4,752,348 | | | 4,806,826 | | | 4,891,341 | |
For our repurchase agreement borrowings, we are required to post and maintain margin to the lender (i.e., collateral in excess of the repurchase agreement financing) in order to support the amount of the financing. This excess collateral is often referred to as a “haircut” and is intended to provide the lender protection against fluctuations in fair value of the collateral and/or the failure by us to repay the borrowing at maturity. The weighted average haircut for our borrowings as of September 30, 2022 was consistent with prior periods, which has typically averaged less than 5% for borrowings collateralized with Agency RMBS and CMBS and between 13-16% for borrowings collateralized with CMBS IO.
The collateral we post in excess of our repurchase agreement borrowing with any counterparty is also typically referred to by us as “equity at risk”, which represents the potential loss to the Company if the counterparty is unable or unwilling to return collateral securing the repurchase agreement borrowing at its maturity. The counterparties with whom we have the greatest amounts of equity at risk may vary significantly during any given period due to the short-term and generally uncommitted nature of the repurchase agreement borrowings. As of September 30, 2022, the Company had repurchase agreement amounts outstanding with 25 of its 37 available
repurchase agreement counterparties and did not have more than 5% of equity at risk with any counterparty or group of related counterparties.
As discussed in our 2021 Form 10-K, we have various financial and operating covenants in certain of our repurchase agreements, which we monitor and evaluate on an ongoing basis for compliance as well as impacts these customary covenants may have on our operating and financing flexibility. Currently, we do not believe we are subject to any covenants that materially restrict our financing flexibility. We were in full compliance with our debt covenants as of September 30, 2022, and we are not aware of any circumstances which could potentially result in our non-compliance in the foreseeable future.
Derivative Instruments
Derivative instruments we enter into may require us to post initial margin at inception and daily variation margin based on subsequent changes in their fair value. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to receive collateral from our counterparties if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the minimum margin requirement. The collateral posted as margin by us is typically in the form of cash. As of September 30, 2022, we had cash collateral posted to our counterparties of $246.2 million under these agreements.
Collateral requirements for interest rate derivative instruments are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchant, which may establish margin requirements in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral requirements for our TBA contracts are governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation and, if applicable, by our third-party brokerage agreements, which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Our TBA contracts, which are subject to master securities forward transaction agreements published by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as well as supplemental terms and conditions with each counterparty, generally provide that valuations for our TBA contracts and any pledged collateral are to be obtained from a generally recognized source agreed to by both parties. However, in certain circumstances, our counterparties have the sole discretion to determine the value of the TBA contract and any pledged collateral. In such instances, our counterparties are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
Dividends
As a REIT, we are required to distribute to our shareholders amounts equal to at least 90% of our REIT taxable income for each taxable year after certain deductions. When declaring dividends, our Board of Directors considers the Company’s taxable income, the REIT distribution requirements of the Tax Code, financial performance measures, and maintaining compliance with dividend requirements of the Series C Preferred Stock, along with other factors that the Board of Directors may deem relevant from time to time.
Currently, we are primarily using U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our financing costs and book value per common share. Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on these derivative instruments are included in GAAP earnings, but are not included in EAD to common shareholders and are not factored into our repurchase agreement borrowing cost or net interest spread. We have realized gains of $149.6 million for the third quarter of 2022 and $486.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 on our derivative instruments designated as interest rate hedges for tax purposes. Though these realized gains are included in our GAAP earnings, the majority will not be included in our REIT taxable income for 2022. As a result, our net deferred tax hedge gain has increased substantially to $512.9 million as of September 30, 2022 compared to $27.0 million as of December 31, 2021. The amortization of our net deferred tax hedge gain will be amortized into REIT taxable income over several years, which we expect to mitigate the impact of higher financing costs.
The following table provides the projected amortization of our deferred tax hedge gain as of September 30, 2022 that will be recognized as taxable income over the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | |
Period of Recognition for Remaining Hedge Gains, Net | | September 30, 2022 |
| | ($ in thousands) |
First quarter 2022 | | $ | (560) | |
Second quarter 2022 | | 1,950 | |
Third quarter 2022 | | 9,376 | |
Fourth quarter 2022 | | 11,778 | |
First quarter 2023 | | 12,343 | |
Second quarter 2023 | | 12,352 | |
Third quarter 2023 | | 12,385 | |
Fourth quarter 2023 | | 12,476 | |
Fiscal year 2024 | | 52,128 | |
Fiscal year 2025 and thereafter | | 388,715 | |
| | $ | 512,943 | |
As shown in the table above, we currently expect to recognize approximately $49.6 million in deferred tax hedge gains during 2023. As of September 30, 2022, we also had $352.0 million in capital loss carryforwards, the majority of which expire in 2027, and a net operating loss carryforward of $17.4 million, of which $8.1 million expires at the end of 2022 and $1.2 million expires in 2023. Due to these amounts and other temporary and permanent differences between GAAP net income and REIT taxable income coupled with the degree of uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates, we cannot reasonably estimate how much, if any, of the $49.6 million in deferred tax hedge gains to be recognized in 2023 will impact our dividend declarations for next year, or in any year.
We generally fund our dividend distributions through our cash flows from operations. If we make dividend distributions in excess of our operating cash flows during the period, whether for purposes of meeting our REIT distribution requirements or other strategic reasons, those distributions are generally funded either through our existing cash balances or through the return of principal from our investments (either through repayment or sale). Please refer to "Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part I, Item 1, "Business" as well as Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” of our 2021 Form 10-K for additional important information regarding dividends declared on our taxable income.
RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
There were no accounting pronouncements issued during the nine months ended September 30, 2022 that are expected to have a material impact on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations. Please refer to Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part I, Item 1 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for additional information.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based in large part upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates and judgments on historical experience and assumptions believed to be reasonable under current facts and circumstances. Actual results, however, may differ from the estimated amounts we have recorded.
Critical accounting estimates are defined as those that require management's most difficult, subjective or complex judgments, and which may result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Our critical accounting estimates are discussed in Part II, Item 7, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” of our 2021 Form 10-K under “Critical Accounting Estimates.” There have been
no significant changes in our critical accounting estimates during the three and nine months ended September 30, 2022.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain written statements in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q that are not historical facts constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Statements in this report addressing expectations, assumptions, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, future events, developments that we expect or anticipate will occur in the future, and future operating results, capital management, and dividend policy are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s beliefs, assumptions, and expectations as of the date of this report regarding future events and operating performance, taking into account all information currently available to us, and are applicable only as of the date of this report. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by use of words such as “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “plan”, “may”, “will”, “intend”, “should”, “could” or similar expressions. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are not historical facts and may be based on projections, assumptions, expectations, and anticipated events that do not materialize. Except as required by law, we are not obligated to, and do not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Forward-looking statements in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q may include, but are not limited to statements about:
•Our business and investment strategy including our ability to generate acceptable risk-adjusted returns and our target investment allocations, and our views on the future performance of MBS and other investments;
•Our views on the macroeconomic environment, monetary and fiscal policy, and conditions in the investment, credit, interest rate and derivatives markets;
•Our views on inflation, market interest rates and market spreads;
•Our views on the effect of actual or proposed actions of the Federal Reserve or other central banks with respect to monetary policy (including the targeted Federal Funds Rate), and the potential impact of these actions on interest rates, borrowing costs, inflation or unemployment;
•The effect of regulatory initiatives of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, other financial regulators, and other central banks;
•Our financing strategy including our target leverage ratios, our use of TBA dollar roll transactions, and anticipated trends in financing costs including TBA dollar roll transaction costs, and our hedging strategy including changes to the derivative instruments to which we are a party, and changes to government regulation of hedging instruments and our use of these instruments;
•Our investment portfolio composition and target investments;
•Our investment portfolio performance, including the fair value, yields, and forecasted prepayment speeds of our investments;
•Our liquidity and ability to access financing, and the anticipated availability and cost of financing;
•Our capital stock activity including the impact of stock issuances and repurchases;
•The amount, timing, and funding of future dividends;
•Our use of our tax NOL carryforward and other tax loss carryforwards;
•Future competition for, and availability of, investments, financing and capital;
•Estimates of future interest expenses, including related to the Company’s repurchase agreements and derivative instruments;
•The status and effect of legislative reforms and regulatory rule-making or review processes, and the status of reform efforts and other business developments in the repurchase agreement financing market;
•Market, industry and economic trends, and how these trends and related economic data may impact the behavior of market participants and financial regulators;
•Uncertainties regarding ongoing hostilities between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, including, among other things, interest rates;
•The financial position and credit worthiness of the depository institutions in which the Company’s MBS and cash deposits are held;
•The impact of applicable tax and accounting requirements on us including our tax treatment of derivative instruments such as TBAs, interest rate swaps, options and futures;
•Our future compliance with covenants in our master repurchase agreements, ISDA agreements, and debt covenants in our other contractual agreements;
•Our reliance on a single service provider of our trading, portfolio management, risk reporting and accounting services systems;
•The implementation in a timely and cost-effective manner of our operating platform, which includes trading, portfolio management, risk reporting, and accounting services systems, and the anticipated benefits thereof; and
•Possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Not all of these risks and other factors are known to us. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect us. The projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs upon which the forward-looking statements are based can also change as a result of these risks or other factors. If such a risk or other factor materializes in future periods, our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements.
While it is not possible to identify all factors that may cause actual results to differ from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by forward-looking statements, or that may cause our projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs to change, some of those factors include the following:
•the risks and uncertainties referenced in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, especially those incorporated by reference into Part II, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and in particular, adverse effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and any governmental or societal responses thereto;
•our ability to find suitable reinvestment opportunities;
•changes in domestic economic conditions;
•geopolitical events, such as terrorism, war or other military conflict, including increased uncertainty regarding the ongoing hostility between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impact on macroeconomic conditions as a result of such conflict;
•changes in interest rates and credit spreads, including the repricing of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities;
•our investment portfolio performance particularly as it relates to cash flow, prepayment rates and credit performance;
•the impact on markets and asset prices from changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies regarding the purchases of Agency RMBS, Agency CMBS, and U.S. Treasuries;
•actual or anticipated changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy or the monetary policy of other central banks;
•adverse reactions in U.S. financial markets related to actions of foreign central banks or the economic performance of foreign economies including in particular China, Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom;
•uncertainty concerning the long-term fiscal health and stability of the United States;
•the cost and availability of financing, including the future availability of financing due to changes to regulation of, and capital requirements imposed upon, financial institutions;
•the cost and availability of new equity capital;
•changes in our leverage and use of leverage;
•changes to our investment strategy, operating policies, dividend policy or asset allocations;
•the quality of performance of third-party service providers, including our sole third-party service provider for our critical operations and trade functions;
•the loss or unavailability of our third-party service provider’s service and technology that supports critical functions of our business related to our trading and borrowing activities due to outages, interruptions, or other failures;
•the level of defaults by borrowers on loans underlying MBS;
•changes in our industry;
•increased competition;
•changes in government regulations affecting our business;
•changes or volatility in the repurchase agreement financing markets and other credit markets;
•changes to the market for interest rate swaps and other derivative instruments, including changes to margin requirements on derivative instruments;
•uncertainty regarding continued government support of the U.S. financial system and U.S. housing and real estate markets, or to reform the U.S. housing finance system including the resolution of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
•the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve;
•the political environment in the U.S.;
•systems failures or cybersecurity incidents; and
•exposure to current and future claims and litigation.
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is the exposure to losses resulting from changes in market factors. Our business strategy exposes us to a variety of market risks, including interest rate, spread, prepayment, credit, liquidity, and reinvestment risks. These risks can and do cause fluctuations in our liquidity, comprehensive income and book value as discussed below.
Interest Rate Risk
Investing in interest-rate sensitive investments such as MBS and TBA securities subjects us to interest rate risk. Interest rate risk results from investing in securities that have a fixed coupon or when the coupon may not immediately adjust for changes in interest rates. Interest rate risk also results from the mismatch between the duration of our assets versus the duration of our liabilities and hedges. The amount of the impact will depend on the composition of our portfolio, our hedging strategy, the effectiveness of our hedging instruments as well as the magnitude and the duration of the change in interest rates.
We manage interest rate risk within tolerances set by our Board of Directors. We use interest rate hedging instruments to mitigate the impact of changing interest rates on the market value of our assets and on our interest expense from repurchase agreements used to finance our investments. Our hedging methods are based on many factors, including, but not limited to, our estimates with regard to future rates as well as expected levels of prepayments of our assets. If prepayments are slower or faster than assumed, the maturity of our investments will also differ from our expectations, which could reduce the effectiveness of our hedging strategies and may cause losses and adversely affect our cash flow. Estimates of prepayment speeds can vary significantly by investor for the same security, and therefore estimates of security and portfolio duration can vary significantly between market participants.
Because we continuously monitor market conditions, economic conditions, interest rates and other market activity and frequently adjust the composition of our investments and hedges throughout any given period, the projections provided below are limited in usefulness because the modeling assumes no changes to the composition of our investment portfolio and hedging instruments as of the dates indicated. Changes in types of our investments, the returns earned on these investments, future interest rates, credit spreads, the shape of the yield curve, the availability of financing, and/or the mix of our investments and financings including derivative instruments may cause actual results to differ significantly from the modeled results shown in the tables below. There can be no assurance that assumed events used to model the results shown below will occur, or that other events will not occur, that will affect the outcomes; therefore, the modeled results shown in the tables below and all related disclosures constitute forward-looking statements.
The table below shows the projected sensitivity of our net interest income as of the dates indicated assuming an instantaneous parallel shift in interest rates and no changes in the composition of our investment portfolio:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Projected Change in Net Interest Income Due To |
| Decrease in Interest Rates of | | Increase in Interest Rates of |
| 50 Basis Points | | 25 Basis Points | | 25 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points |
September 30, 2022 | 265.7 | % | | 151.1 | % | | (78.4) | % | | (193.3) | % |
December 31, 2021 | (1) | | 8.3 | % | | (9.7) | % | | (20.0) | % |
(1) Because the Company does not assume financing rates will be less than 0%, a parallel downward shift in interest rates of 50 basis points is not presented for the portfolio as of December 31, 2021.
Because our MBS portfolio as of the periods indicated in the table above is comprised of fixed rate assets, our interest income will not benefit from an increase in interest rates, while a parallel increase in interest rates would increase our borrowing costs. Conversely, a parallel decrease in interest rates would lower our borrowing costs without causing a decline in our interest income. The increase in projected sensitivity as of September 30, 2022 is significantly higher than the projected sensitivity as of December 31, 2021 because, as shown by the graphs in Item 2, “Executive Overview”, interest rates as of September 30, 2022 were significantly higher than interest rates as of December 31, 2021. In addition, because projected Federal Funds Rate increases are resulting in lower projected net interest income as of September 30, 2022 compared to December 31, 2021, the calculation has a smaller denominator compared to December 31, 2021, which results in higher percentage changes in sensitivity to rate changes.
Management considers changes in the shape of the interest rate curves in assessing and managing portfolio interest rate risk on the market value of its investments and common equity. Because interest rates do not typically move in a parallel fashion from quarter to quarter (as can be seen by the graphs for U.S. Treasury and swap rates in Item 2, “Executive Overview”), the tables below show the projected sensitivity of the market value of our financial instruments and the percentage change in shareholders’ equity assuming instantaneous parallel shifts and non-parallel shifts in market interest rates. The overall market value sensitivity of our investments and hedges as of September 30, 2022 has declined modestly compared to that as of December 31, 2021.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | September 30, 2022 |
| | Parallel Decrease in Interest Rates of | | Parallel Increase in Interest Rates of |
| | 100 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 100 Basis Points |
Type of Instrument (1) | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity |
RMBS | | 2.8 | % | | 26.6 | % | | 1.4 | % | | 13.4 | % | | (1.4) | % | | (13.3) | % | | (2.7) | % | | (26.3) | % |
CMBS | | 0.1 | % | | 0.7 | % | | — | % | | 0.4 | % | | — | % | | (0.3) | % | | (0.1) | % | | (0.7) | % |
CMBS IO | | — | % | | 0.3 | % | | — | % | | 0.1 | % | | — | % | | (0.1) | % | | — | % | | (0.3) | % |
TBAs | | 2.9 | % | | 27.6 | % | | 1.5 | % | | 14.3 | % | | (1.5) | % | | (15.0) | % | | (3.1) | % | | (30.4) | % |
Interest rate hedges | | (5.0) | % | | (48.1) | % | | (2.5) | % | | (24.3) | % | | 2.5 | % | | 24.4 | % | | 5.0 | % | | 48.4 | % |
Total | | 0.8 | % | | 7.1 | % | | 0.4 | % | | 3.9 | % | | (0.4) | % | | (4.3) | % | | (0.9) | % | | (9.3) | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | December 31, 2021 |
| | Parallel Decrease in Interest Rates of | | Parallel Increase in Interest Rates of |
| | 100 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 100 Basis Points |
Type of Instrument (1) | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity |
RMBS | | 2.6 | % | | 18.6 | % | | 1.6 | % | | 11.1 | % | | (1.9) | % | | (13.5) | % | | (4.0) | % | | (28.5) | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CMBS | | 0.2 | % | | 1.4 | % | | 0.1 | % | | 0.7 | % | | (0.1) | % | | (0.7) | % | | (0.2) | % | | (1.3) | % |
CMBS IO | | 0.2 | % | | 1.1 | % | | 0.1 | % | | 0.6 | % | | (0.1) | % | | (0.6) | % | | (0.2) | % | | (1.1) | % |
TBAs | | 1.4 | % | | 9.7 | % | | 0.9 | % | | 6.1 | % | | (1.1) | % | | (7.5) | % | | (2.3) | % | | (15.9) | % |
Interest rate hedges | | (6.9) | % | | (49.1) | % | | (3.5) | % | | (24.6) | % | | 3.5 | % | | 24.9 | % | | 7.0 | % | | 49.5 | % |
Total | | (2.5) | % | | (18.3) | % | | (0.8) | % | | (6.1) | % | | 0.3 | % | | 2.6 | % | | 0.3 | % | | 2.7 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Non-Parallel Shifts | | September 30, 2022 | | December 31, 2021 |
Basis Point Change in 2-year UST | | Basis Point Change in 10-year UST | | % of Market Value (1) | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value (1) | | % of Common Equity |
+25 | | 0 | | 0.2 | % | | 2.0 | % | | 0.3 | % | | 2.5 | % |
+25 | | +50 | | (0.5) | % | | (5.3) | % | | 0.2 | % | | 1.3 | % |
+50 | | +25 | | (0.2) | % | | (1.5) | % | | 0.1 | % | | 2.5 | % |
+50 | | +100 | | (1.2) | % | | (11.3) | % | | — | % | | 0.1 | % |
0 | | -25 | | 0.3 | % | | 2.8 | % | | (0.2) | % | | (1.2) | % |
-10 | | -50 | | 0.5 | % | | 5.0 | % | | (0.6) | % | | (4.0) | % |
-25 | | -75 | | 0.6 | % | | 6.1 | % | | (1.3) | % | | (9.0) | % |
(1)Includes changes in market value of our investments and derivative instruments, including TBA securities, but excludes changes in market value of our financings which are not carried at fair value on our balance sheet due to their short-term maturities. The projections for market value do not assume any change in credit spreads.
Over the past nine months, we have shifted our interest rate risk position from a relatively shorter duration as of December 31, 2021, which protected our book value from increasing interest rates, to a more neutral position as of September 30, 2022 because we expect the pace of future increases in interest rates on the back end of the yield curve will lessen, and further flattening and potentially inverting of the yield curve to be more likely scenarios.
Spread Risk
Spread risk is the risk of loss from an increase in the market spread between the yield on an investment versus its benchmark index. Changes in market spreads represent the market's valuation of the perceived riskiness of an asset relative to risk-free rates, and widening spreads reduce the market value of our investments as market participants require additional yield to hold riskier assets. Market spreads could change based on macroeconomic or systemic factors as well as the factors specific to a particular security such as prepayment performance or credit performance. Other factors that could impact credit spreads include technical issues such as supply and demand for a particular type of security or Federal Reserve monetary policy. We do not hedge spread risk given the complexity of hedging credit spreads and in our opinion, the lack of liquid instruments available to use as hedges.
Fluctuations in spreads typically vary based on the type of investment. Sensitivity to changes in market spreads is derived from models that are dependent on various assumptions, and actual changes in market value in response to changes in market spreads could differ materially from the projected sensitivity if actual conditions differ from these assumptions.
The Company's exposure to changes to market spreads has not materially shifted for our investment portfolio as of September 30, 2022 versus our investment portfolio as of December 31, 2021. The table below shows the projected sensitivity of the market value of our investments given the indicated change in market spreads as of the dates indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | September 30, 2022 | | December 31, 2021 |
| | Percentage Change in | | Percentage Change in |
Basis Point Change in Market Spreads | | Market Value of Investments (1) | | % of Common Equity | | Market Value of Investments (1) | | % of Common Equity |
+20/+50 (2) | | (1.3) | % | | (12.5) | % | | (1.3) | % | | (9.2) | % |
+10 | | (0.6) | % | | (6.2) | % | | (0.6) | % | | (4.4) | % |
-10 | | 0.6 | % | | 6.2 | % | | 0.6 | % | | 4.4 | % |
-20/-50 (2) | | 1.3 | % | | 12.5 | % | | 1.3 | % | | 9.2 | % |
(1) Includes changes in market value of our MBS investments, including TBA securities.
(2) Assumes a 20-basis point shift in Agency and non-Agency RMBS and CMBS and a 50-basis point shift in Agency
and non-Agency CMBS IO.
Prepayment Risk
Prepayment risk is the risk of an early, unscheduled return of principal on an investment. We are subject to prepayment risk from premiums paid on investments, which are amortized as a reduction in interest income using the effective yield method under GAAP. Our comprehensive income and book value per common share may also be negatively impacted by prepayments if the fair value of the investment materially exceeds the par balance of the underlying security. Principal prepayments on our investments are influenced by changes in market interest rates and a variety of economic, geographic, government policy and other factors beyond our control, including GSE policy with respect to loan forbearance and delinquent loan buy-outs.
We seek to manage our prepayment risk on our MBS by diversifying our investments and investing in securities which either contain loans for which the underlying borrowers have some disincentive to refinance or have some sort of prepayment prohibition or yield maintenance as is the case with CMBS and CMBS IO. Loans underlying our CMBS and CMBS IO securities typically have some form of prepayment protection provisions (such as prepayment lock-outs) or prepayment compensation provisions (such as yield maintenance or prepayment penalties). Because CMBS IO consist of rights to interest on the underlying commercial mortgage loan pools and do not have rights to principal payments on the underlying loans, prepayment risk on these securities is particularly acute without these prepayment protection provisions. There are no prepayment protections if the loan defaults and is partially or wholly repaid earlier as a result of loss mitigation actions taken by the underlying loan servicer.
Credit Risk
Credit risk is the risk that we will not receive all contractual amounts due on investments that we own due to default by the borrower or due to a deficiency in proceeds from the liquidation of the collateral securing the obligation. Credit losses on loans could result in lower or negative yields on our investments.
Agency RMBS and Agency CMBS have credit risk to the extent that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac fails to remit payments on the MBS for which they have issued a guaranty of payment. Given the improved financial performance and conservatorship of these entities and the continued support of the U.S. government, we believe this risk is low.
Agency and non-Agency CMBS IO represent the right to excess interest and not principal on the underlying loans. These securities are exposed to the loss of investment basis in the event a loan collateralizing the security liquidates without paying yield maintenance or prepayment penalty. This will typically occur when the underlying loan is in default and proceeds from the disposition of the loan collateral are insufficient to pay the prepayment consideration. To mitigate credit risk of investing in CMBS IO, we invest in primarily AAA-rated securities in senior tranches, which means we receive the highest payment priority and are the last to absorb losses in the event of a shortfall in cash flows.
Liquidity Risk
We have liquidity risk principally from the use of recourse repurchase agreements to finance our ownership of securities. Our repurchase agreements are renewable at the discretion of our lenders and do not contain guaranteed
roll-over terms. If we fail to repay the lender at maturity, the lender has the right to immediately sell the collateral and pursue us for any shortfall if the sales proceeds are inadequate to cover the repurchase agreement financing. In addition, declines in the market value of our investments pledged as collateral for repurchase agreement borrowings and for our derivative instruments may result in counterparties initiating margin calls for additional collateral.
Our use of TBA long positions as a means of investing in and financing Agency RMBS also exposes us to liquidity risk in the event that we are unable to roll or terminate our TBA contracts prior to their settlement date. If we are unable to roll or terminate our TBA long positions, we could be required to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and settle our obligations for cash, which could negatively impact our liquidity position or force us to sell assets under adverse conditions if financing is not available to us on acceptable terms.
For further information, including how we attempt to mitigate liquidity risk and monitor our liquidity position and in particular, during the current economic crisis, please refer to “Liquidity and Capital Resources” in Item 2 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
Reinvestment Risk
We are subject to reinvestment risk as a result of the prepayment, repayment and sales of our investments. In order to maintain our investment portfolio size and our earnings, we need to reinvest capital received from these events into new interest-earning assets or TBA securities, and if market yields on new investments are lower, our interest income will decline. In addition, based on market conditions, our leverage, and our liquidity profile, we may decide to not reinvest the cash flows we receive from our investment portfolio even when attractive reinvestment opportunities are available, or we may decide to reinvest in assets with lower yield but greater liquidity. If we retain capital or pay dividends to return capital to shareholders rather than reinvest capital, or if we invest capital in lower yielding assets for liquidity reasons, the size of our investment portfolio and the amount of income generated by our investment portfolio will likely decline.