ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with our unaudited consolidated financial statements and the accompanying notes included in Part I, Item 1. “Financial Statements” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and our audited consolidated financial statements and the accompanying notes included in Part II, Item 8 in our 2022 Form 10-K. References herein to “Dynex,” the “Company,” “we,” “us,” and “our” include Dynex Capital, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries, unless the context otherwise requires. In addition to current and historical information, the following discussion and analysis contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to our future business, financial condition or results of operations. For a description of certain factors that may have a significant impact on our future business, financial condition or results of operations, see “Forward-Looking Statements” at the end of this discussion and analysis.
For more information about our business including our operating policies, investment philosophy and strategy, financing and hedging strategies, and other important information, please refer to Part I, Item 1 of our 2022 Form 10-K.
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
In the first half of 2023, quantitative tightening continued, and interest rate and spread volatility remained elevated, which provided for an uncertain investment environment. After several bank failed in March 2023, interest rates trended down following a brief flight to safety. Following bank acquisitions in May 2023 and the U.S. debt ceiling resolution in June 2023, markets began to refocus on inflation and the resilience of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve increased Federal Funds Target Rate (“Fed Funds rate”) by 25 basis points during the second quarter. Interest rates rose higher across the curve as additional Fed Funds rate increases are anticipated, and the messaging for higher for longer appears to be getting some traction. Mortgage spreads hit their widest point in late May due to Agency MBS portfolio liquidations from the failed banks as well as uncertainty about the U.S. debt ceiling; however, spreads tightened through mid-June after the U.S. debt ceiling issue was resolved. The end of the second quarter followed a standard market paradigm of interest rates up and spreads wider. Despite the interest rate volatility and negative market technicals this quarter, the Company’s book value increased as hedge gains offset losses on our MBS.
The charts below show the range of U.S. Treasury rates for the past six months and information regarding market spreads as of and for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Market Spreads as of: | | Change in Spreads Second Quarter | | Change in Spreads YTD |
Investment Type: | | June 30, 2023 | | March 31, 2023 | | December 31, 2022 | | |
Agency RMBS: (1) | | | | | | | | | | |
2.0% coupon | | 22 | | | 32 | | | 14 | | | (10) | | | 8 | |
2.5% coupon | | 28 | | | 34 | | | 21 | | | (6) | | | 7 | |
3.0% coupon | | 31 | | | 34 | | | 24 | | | (3) | | | 7 | |
3.5% coupon | | 31 | | | 32 | | | 28 | | | (1) | | | 3 | |
4.0% coupon | | 33 | | | 34 | | | 22 | | | (1) | | | 11 | |
4.5% coupon | | 34 | | | 41 | | | 26 | | | (7) | | | 8 | |
5.0% coupon | | 40 | | | 36 | | | 28 | | | 4 | | | 12 | |
5.5% coupon | | 44 | | | 38 | | | 33 | | | 6 | | | 11 | |
Agency DUS (Agency CMBS)(2) | | 72 | | | 78 | | | 74 | | | (6) | | | (2) | |
Freddie K AAA IO (Agency CMBS IO)(2) | | 175 | | | 210 | | | 235 | | | (35) | | | (60) | |
AAA CMBS IO (Non-Agency CMBS IO)(2) | | 301 | | | 350 | | | 315 | | | (49) | | | (14) | |
(1)Option adjusted spreads (“OAS”) are based on Company estimates using third-party models and market data. OAS shown for prior periods may differ from previous disclosures because.the Company regularly updates the third-party model used.
(2)Data represents the spread to swap rate on newly issued securities and is sourced from J.P. Morgan.
Summary of Results
For the second quarter of 2023, our total economic return of $0.79 per common share was comprised of dividends declared of $0.39 and an increase in book value of $0.40 to $14.20 per common share as of June 30, 2023. Interest rates were volatile, particularly the 5-year U.S. Treasury rate, ending the second quarter higher relative to March 31, 2023. As a result, our interest rate hedges gained a net $170.0 million, offsetting the impact of higher interest rates on the fair value of our investment portfolio. Though spreads on higher coupon assets widened during the
second quarter, the impact on the fair value of our investment portfolio was muted by spread tightening on our lower coupon assets. The increase in the fair value of our interest rate hedges, net of our investments, was $55.5 million, making it the primary component of our comprehensive income to common shareholders of $43.0 million. While our net interest earnings continue to be impacted by higher borrowing costs arising from the increases in the U.S. Fed Funds rate as the Federal Reserve continues its efforts to tame inflation, we are maintaining our focus on protecting book value through disciplined risk management. Book value lost in the first quarter of 2023 as a result of spread widening was partially recovered during the second quarter of 2023, leading to a year-to-date total economic return of 1.70%.
The following table provides details about the changes in our financial position during the three months ended June 30, 2023:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Net Change in Fair Value | | Components of Comprehensive Income | | Common Book Value Rollforward | | Per Common Share |
| | | | | | | |
Balance as of March 31, 2023 (1) | | | | | $ | 743,328 | | | $ | 13.80 | |
Net interest income | | | $ | (2,930) | | | | | |
G & A and other operating expenses | | | (7,632) | | | | | |
Preferred stock dividends | | | (1,923) | | | | | |
Changes in fair value: | | | | | | | |
MBS and loans | $ | (60,556) | | | | | | | |
TBAs | (53,996) | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | 171,219 | | | | | | | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | (1,211) | | | | | | | |
Total net change in fair value | | | 55,456 | | | | | |
Comprehensive income to common shareholders | | | | | 42,971 | | | 0.79 | |
Capital transactions: | | | | | | | |
Net proceeds from stock issuance (2) | | | | | 4,487 | | | — | |
Common dividends declared | | | | | (21,324) | | | (0.39) | |
Balance as of June 30, 2023 (1) | | | | | $ | 769,462 | | | $ | 14.20 | |
| | | | | | | |
(1)Amounts represent total shareholders' equity less the aggregate liquidation preference of the Company's preferred stock, in thousands and on a per common share basis.
(2)Net proceeds from stock issuance include $3.5 million from common stock ATM program and $1.0 million from share-based compensation grants, net of amortization. The amount shown for “per common share” includes the impact of the increase in the number of common shares outstanding.
Realized gains and losses on interest rate hedges are recognized in GAAP net income in the same reporting period in which the derivative instrument matures or is terminated, but are not included in our earnings available for distribution ("EAD"), a non-GAAP measure, during any reporting period. On a tax basis, realized gains and losses on derivative instruments designated for tax purposes as interest rate hedges are amortized into the our REIT taxable income over the original periods hedged by those derivatives. Our estimated REIT taxable income for the first six months of 2023 includes an estimated benefit of approximately $38.8 million, or $0.72 per average common share outstanding, from the amortization of accumulated deferred tax hedge gains, which were estimated to be $649.7 million as of June 30, 2023 compared to $695.2 million as of December 31, 2022. This benefit will be distributable to common shareholders as part of our taxable ordinary income in future periods. Additional information regarding the estimated impact of deferred tax hedge amortization on our estimated REIT taxable income is discussed in “Liquidity and Capital Resources” within this Item 2.
Current Outlook
The first half of 2023 was challenging to navigate as quantitative tightening continued, banks failed, interest rate volatility remained high, and debt ceiling debates provided a backdrop of uncertainty. Despite a challenging first half of 2023, spread widening has provided an appealing investment opportunity for Agency MBS investors, and we expect that trend to continue in the short to intermediate term. Going into the second half of 2023, we seek to maintain flexibility and higher levels of liquidity in preparation for unexpected events while continuing to purchase MBS with attractive yields. The debt ceiling issue has been resolved and sales of failed banks’ assets have been well absorbed by the market, which we believe may somewhat alleviate recent market volatility. Longer term, we believe there will be opportunities to deliver compelling investment returns to our investors, particularly as spreads tighten and the value of our Agency RMBS increases. While we believe we are in a highly favorable investing environment, we continue to operate with a deep respect for the complexity of global macroeconomic conditions. We remain flexible, disciplined, and prepared to adjust our investment and hedging portfolios as well as leverage levels to suit multiple scenarios.
FINANCIAL CONDITION
Investment Portfolio
The following charts compare the composition of our MBS portfolio including TBA securities as of the dates indicated:
We frequently change the coupon distribution in our Agency RMBS and TBA portfolios in order to minimize losses due to spread volatility. During the six months ended June 30, 2023, we have shifted into higher coupon Agency RMBS and reduced our investment in TBA securities. We expect spreads will remain volatile and range-bound in the intermediate term while the Federal Reserve continues reducing MBS from its balance sheet. Longer term, as investors return to the MBS market and demand improves, we expect the fair value of our investment portfolio to increase and our book value to trend higher.
The following tables compare our fixed-rate Agency RMBS investments, including TBA dollar roll positions, as of the dates indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | June 30, 2023 |
| | Par/Notional | | Amortized Cost/ Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | | Fair Value (2)(3) | | Weighted Average |
Coupon | | | | | Loan Age (in months)(4) | | 3 Month CPR (4)(5) | | Estimated Duration (6) | | Market Yield (7) |
30-year fixed-rate: | | ($s in thousands) | | | | | | | | |
2.0% | | $ | 738,366 | | | $ | 751,210 | | | $ | 607,450 | | | 33 | | 5.4 | % | | 6.93 | | 4.66 | % |
2.5% | | 634,256 | | | 659,469 | | | 542,554 | | | 34 | | 6.8 | % | | 6.71 | | 4.70 | % |
4.0% | | 368,367 | | | 369,050 | | | 348,785 | | | 28 | | 5.3 | % | | 5.72 | | 4.83 | % |
4.5% | | 1,117,339 | | | 1,104,123 | | | 1,078,938 | | | 9 | | 4.8 | % | | 5.26 | | 5.04 | % |
5.0% | | 1,554,427 | | | 1,544,909 | | | 1,528,286 | | | 4 | | 1.2 | % | | 4.62 | | 5.27 | % |
5.5% | | 647,735 | | | 651,949 | | | 647,024 | | | 3 | | 1.0 | % | | 4.08 | | 5.51 | % |
TBA 4.0% | | 357,000 | | | 337,183 | | | 337,357 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 6.06 | | 4.83 | % |
TBA 4.5% | | 440,000 | | | 429,905 | | | 422,881 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 5.00 | | 5.05 | % |
TBA 5.0% | | 1,102,000 | | | 1,094,936 | | | 1,079,702 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 3.97 | | 5.32 | % |
TBA 5.5% | | 277,000 | | | 277,065 | | | 275,701 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 3.42 | | 5.58 | % |
Total | | $ | 7,236,490 | | | $ | 7,219,799 | | | $ | 6,868,678 | | | 14 | | 3.6 | % | | 5.02 | | | 5.12 | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | December 31, 2022 |
| | Par/Notional | | Amortized Cost/ Implied Cost Basis (1)(3) | | Fair Value (2)(3) | | Weighted Average |
Coupon | | | | | Loan Age (in months)(4) | | 3 Month CPR (4)(5) | | Estimated Duration (6) | | Market Yield (7) |
30-year fixed-rate: | | ($s in thousands) | | | | | | | | |
2.0% | | $ | 1,193,344 | | | $ | 1,210,065 | | | $ | 982,387 | | | 23 | | 5.2 | % | | 7.14 | | 4.53 | % |
2.5% | | 659,181 | | | 685,838 | | | 566,525 | | | 28 | | 5.9 | % | | 6.67 | | 4.59 | % |
4.0% | | 325,726 | | | 329,725 | | | 309,940 | | | 25 | | 7.2 | % | | 5.56 | | 4.75 | % |
4.5% | | 803,043 | | | 799,786 | | | 782,319 | | | 4 | | 4.4 | % | | 5.02 | | 4.89 | % |
5.0% | | 123,204 | | | 125,460 | | | 121,707 | | | 4 | | 7.2 | % | | 3.99 | | 5.19 | % |
TBA 4.0% | | 1,539,000 | | | 1,454,263 | | | 1,447,286 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 5.47 | | 4.80 | % |
TBA 4.5% | | 380,000 | | | 371,173 | | | 366,759 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 4.79 | | 4.99 | % |
TBA 5.0% | | 950,000 | | | 947,484 | | | 937,523 | | | n/a | | n/a | | 4.24 | | 5.20 | % |
Total | | $ | 5,973,498 | | | $ | 5,923,794 | | | $ | 5,514,446 | | | 18 | | 5.4 | % | | 5.54 | | | 4.88 | % |
(1)Implied cost basis of TBAs represents the forward price to be paid for the underlying Agency MBS.
(2)Fair value of TBAs is the implied market value of the underlying Agency security as of the end of the period.
(3)TBAs are included on the consolidated balance sheet within “derivative assets/liabilities” at their net carrying value which is the difference between their implied market value and implied cost basis. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information. (4)TBAs are excluded from this calculation as they do not have a defined weighted-average loan balance or age until mortgages have been assigned to the pool.
(5)Constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) represents the 3-month CPR of Agency RMBS held as of date indicated.
(6)Duration measures the sensitivity of a security's price to the change in interest rates and represents the percent change in price of a security for a 100-basis point increase in interest rates. We calculate duration using third-party financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different estimates of duration for the same securities.
(7)Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the date indicated and assuming zero volatility.
Less than 5% of our MBS portfolio as of June 30, 2023 is comprised of Agency CMBS, Agency CMBS IO, and non-Agency CMBS IO. Our Agency CMBS and Agency CMBS IO are backed by loans collateralized by multifamily properties, which have performed well for the last decade versus other sectors of the commercial real estate market. Our Agency CMBS IO are Class X1 from Freddie Mac Series K deals from which interest continues to be advanced even in the event of an underlying default up until liquidation. According to Freddie Mac, 99.9% of the loans in K-deals are current as of May 2023. Our non-Agency CMBS IO were all originated prior to 2018 with a weighted average remaining life of less than 2 years. The underlying loans for the non-Agency CMBS IO securities are collateralized by a number of different property types including: 29% retail, 24% office, 14% multifamily, 13% hotel and 20% all other real estate categories. In the current macroeconomic environment, we are not actively purchasing CMBS or CMBS IO as current risk versus reward remains unattractive relative to Agency RMBS.
The following table provides certain information regarding our CMBS and CMBS IO as of the dates indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| June 30, 2023 |
| Amortized Cost | | Fair Value | | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | | WAVG Coupon (2) | | WAVG Market Yield (3) |
Agency CMBS | $ | 122,514 | | | $ | 115,136 | | | 4.6 | | 3.15 | % | | 4.74 | % |
Agency CMBS IO | 160,558 | | | 150,328 | | | 6.1 | | 0.59 | % | | 4.93 | % |
Non-Agency CMBS IO | 41,931 | | | 40,689 | | | 1.8 | | 0.96 | % | | 10.87 | % |
Total | $ | 325,003 | | | $ | 306,153 | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| December 31, 2022 |
| Amortized Cost | | Fair Value | | WAVG Life Remaining (1) | | WAVG Coupon (2) | | WAVG Market Yield (3) |
Agency CMBS | $ | 132,333 | | | $ | 124,690 | | | 4.8 | | 3.22 | % | | 4.50 | % |
Agency CMBS IO | 179,734 | | | 168,147 | | | 6.3 | | 0.41 | % | | 5.32 | % |
Non-Agency CMBS IO | 59,107 | | | 56,839 | | | 2.1 | | 0.83 | % | | 8.54 | % |
Total | $ | 371,174 | | | $ | 349,676 | | | | | | | |
(1) Represents the weighted average life remaining in years based on contractual cash flows as of the dates indicated. |
(2) Represents the weighted average coupon based on par/notional as of the dates indicated. |
(3) Represents the weighted average market yield projected using cash flows generated off the forward curve based on market prices as of the dates indicated and assuming zero volatility. |
Repurchase Agreements
We have not experienced any difficulty in securing financing with any of our counterparties, and our repurchase agreement counterparties have not indicated any concerns regarding leverage or credit. Please refer to Note 4 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q as well as “Results of Operations” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources” contained within this Item 7 for additional information relating to our repurchase agreement borrowings.
Derivative Assets and Liabilities
As of June 30, 2023, the Company held short positions of $4.0 billion in 10-year U.S. Treasury futures and $0.9 million in 5-year U.S. Treasury futures. We have reduced our hedge position relative to December 31, 2022 to match our higher coupon asset profile and position our interest rate sensitivity modestly towards lower interest rates. Please refer to Note 5 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our interest rate derivative instruments as well as “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk” in Item 7A of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
Three Months Ended June 30, 2023 Compared to the Three Months Ended March 31, 2023
The following table summarizes the results of operations for the periods indicated: | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Three Months Ended |
$s in thousands | June 30, 2023 | | March 31, 2023 |
Net interest expense | $ | (2,930) | | | $ | (462) | |
Realized loss on sales of investments, net | (51,601) | | | (23,315) | |
Unrealized gain on investments, net | 488 | | | 57,120 | |
Gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net | 116,012 | | | (67,267) | |
General and administrative expenses | (7,197) | | | (7,372) | |
Other operating expenses, net | (435) | | | (426) | |
Preferred stock dividends | (1,923) | | | (1,923) | |
Net income (loss) to common shareholders | 52,414 | | | (43,645) | |
Other comprehensive (loss) income | (9,443) | | | 14,793 | |
Comprehensive income (loss) to common shareholders | $ | 42,971 | | | $ | (28,852) | |
Net Interest Income (Expense)
Interest expenses exceeded interest income for the three months ended June 30, 2023 and for the three months ended March 31, 2023 due to higher borrowing costs resulting from the increase in the Fed Funds rate as the Federal Reserve continues in its efforts to tame inflation. Interest income for the three months ended June 30, 2023 increased relative to the three months ended March 31, 2023 due to our recent purchases of higher coupon Agency RMBS. The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Three Months Ended |
| June 30, 2023 | | March 31, 2023 |
($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) | | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) |
Agency RMBS | $ | 34,699 | | | $ | 3,931,617 | | | 3.53 | % | | $ | 23,526 | | | $ | 3,204,610 | | | 2.94 | % |
Agency CMBS | 960 | | | 123,843 | | | 3.06 | % | | 884 | | | 128,625 | | | 2.80 | % |
CMBS IO (5) | 2,241 | | | 211,398 | | | 4.41 | % | | 2,542 | | | 230,033 | | | 4.04 | % |
Non-Agency MBS and other investments | 32 | | | 2,479 | | | 4.93 | % | | 40 | | | 2,700 | | | 4.98 | % |
MBS and loans | $ | 37,932 | | | $ | 4,269,337 | | | 3.56 | % | | $ | 26,992 | | | $ | 3,565,968 | | | 3.00 | % |
Cash equivalents | 4,280 | | | | | | | 3,854 | | | | | |
Total interest income | $ | 42,212 | | | | | | | $ | 30,846 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Repurchase agreement financing | (45,142) | | | 3,447,406 | | | (5.18) | % | | (31,308) | | | 2,713,481 | | | (4.62) | % |
Net interest (expense) income/net interest spread | $ | (2,930) | | | | | (1.62) | % | | $ | (462) | | | | | (1.62) | % |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Cost of funds is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Three Months Ended |
| | June 30, 2023 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | (51,601) | | | $ | 1,254 | | | $ | (7,949) | | | $ | (58,296) | |
Agency CMBS | | — | | | (275) | | | (745) | | | (1,020) | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | (466) | | | (749) | | | (1,215) | |
Other non-Agency and loans | | — | | | (25) | | | — | | | (25) | |
Subtotal | | (51,601) | | | 488 | | | (9,443) | | | (60,556) | |
TBA securities (1) | | 4,950 | | | (58,946) | | | — | | | (53,996) | |
Net loss on investments | | $ | (46,651) | | | $ | (58,458) | | | $ | (9,443) | | | $ | (114,552) | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | (92,096) | | | $ | 263,315 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 171,219 | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures (2) | | (3,565) | | | 2,354 | | | — | | | (1,211) | |
Net (loss) gain on interest rate hedges | | $ | (95,661) | | | $ | 265,669 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 170,008 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net (loss) gain | | $ | (142,312) | | | $ | 207,211 | | | $ | (9,443) | | | $ | 55,456 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Three Months Ended |
| | March 31, 2023 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | (23,315) | | | $ | 55,779 | | | $ | 11,238 | | | $ | 43,702 | |
Agency CMBS | | — | | | 237 | | | 1,046 | | | 1,283 | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | 1,092 | | | 2,507 | | | 3,599 | |
Other non-Agency and loans | | — | | | 12 | | | 2 | | | 14 | |
Subtotal | | (23,315) | | | 57,120 | | | 14,793 | | | 48,598 | |
TBA securities (1) | | (13,488) | | | 56,852 | | | — | | | 43,364 | |
Net (loss) gain on investments | | $ | (36,803) | | | $ | 113,972 | | | $ | 14,793 | | | $ | 91,962 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | 88,871 | | | $ | (195,244) | | | $ | — | | | $ | (106,373) | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | | 152 | | | (4,410) | | | — | | | (4,258) | |
Net gain (loss) on interest rate hedges | | $ | 89,023 | | | $ | (199,654) | | | $ | — | | | $ | (110,631) | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net gain (loss) | | $ | 52,220 | | | $ | (85,682) | | | $ | 14,793 | | | $ | (18,669) | |
1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
2)The Company did not hold any options on U.S. Treasury futures as of June 30, 2023. The unrealized gain of $2.4 million shown for the three months ended June 30, 2023 represents the reversal of the unrealized loss recorded prior to the maturity date of the contract.
As discussed in Executive Overview, increasing interest rates during the three months ended June 30, 2023 resulted in gains of $170.0 million from our interest rate hedges, primarily our 5-year U.S. Treasury futures, which offset the impact of higher interest rates on the fair value of our investment portfolio. The increase in the fair value of our interest rate hedges, net of our investments, was $55.5 million for the three months ended June 30, 2023. Conversely, longer term interest rates declined during the three months ended March 31, 2023, but spread widening on our assets partially offset the gains in fair value on our investment portfolio. As a result, the decline in 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury rates during the first quarter of 2023 resulted in losses on our interest rate hedges exceeding the net gains on our investment portfolio by $(18.7) million.
Operating Expenses
Operating expenses for the three months ended June 30, 2023 were largely unchanged compared to the three months ended March 31, 2023. Compensation and benefits expenses were higher due to the hiring of two new
employees and higher amortization of stock-based compensation expense, but were mostly offset by lower consulting expenses.
Six Months Ended June 30, 2023 Compared to the Six Months Ended June 30, 2022
Net Interest Income (Expense)
Net interest income and net interest spread declined for the six months ended June 30, 2023 compared to six months ended June 30, 2022 due to higher borrowing costs resulting from the Federal Reserve’s increases in the Fed Funds rate from June 2022 to June 2023. The increase in our borrowing costs has been partially offset by an increase in our average balance of investments with higher yields and our increased investment in cash equivalents. The following table presents information about our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities and their performance for the periods indicated:
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| Six Months Ended |
| June 30, |
| 2023 | | 2022 |
($s in thousands) | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) | | Interest Income/Expense | | Average Balance (1)(2) | | Effective Yield/ Cost of Funds (3)(4) |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | $ | 58,225 | | | $ | 3,570,122 | | | 3.26 | % | | $ | 25,345 | | | $ | 2,737,073 | | | 1.85 | % |
Agency CMBS | 1,844 | | | 126,221 | | | 2.92 | % | | 2,552 | | | 174,480 | | | 2.89 | % |
CMBS IO (5) | 4,783 | | | 220,664 | | | 4.25 | % | | 7,560 | | | 279,873 | | | 4.81 | % |
Non-Agency MBS and other investments | 72 | | | 2,589 | | | 5.45 | % | | 178 | | | 4,663 | | | 6.87 | % |
MBS and loans | $ | 64,924 | | | $ | 3,919,596 | | | 3.31 | % | | $ | 35,635 | | | $ | 3,196,089 | | | 2.17 | % |
Cash equivalents | 8,134 | | | | | | | 127 | | | | |
Total interest income | $ | 73,058 | | | | | | | $ | 35,762 | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Repurchase agreement financing | (76,450) | | | 3,082,471 | | | (4.93) | % | | (6,010) | | | 2,645,331 | | | (0.45) | % |
Net interest (expense) income/net interest spread | $ | (3,392) | | | | | (1.62) | % | | $ | 29,752 | | | | | 1.72 | % |
(1)Average balance for assets is calculated as a simple average of the daily amortized cost and excludes securities pending settlement if applicable.
(2)Average balance for liabilities is calculated as a simple average of the daily borrowings outstanding during the period.
(3)Effective yield is calculated by dividing interest income by the average balance of asset type outstanding during the reporting period. Unscheduled adjustments to premium/discount amortization/accretion, such as for prepayment compensation, are not annualized in this calculation.
(4)Cost of funds is calculated by dividing annualized interest expense by the total average balance of borrowings outstanding during the period with an assumption of 360 days in a year.
(5)Includes Agency and non-Agency issued securities.
Gains (Losses) on Investments and Derivative Instruments
The following tables provide details on realized and unrealized gains and losses within our investment and interest rate hedging portfolios for the periods indicated:
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| | June 30, 2023 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | (74,916) | | | $ | 57,033 | | | $ | 3,289 | | | $ | (14,594) | |
Agency CMBS | | — | | | (37) | | | 302 | | | 265 | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | 626 | | | 1,757 | | | 2,383 | |
Other non-Agency and loans | | — | | | (13) | | | 2 | | | (11) | |
Subtotal | | (74,916) | | | 57,609 | | | 5,350 | | | (11,957) | |
TBA securities (1) | | (8,538) | | | (2,095) | | | — | | | (10,633) | |
Net (loss) gain on investments | | $ | (83,454) | | | $ | 55,514 | | | $ | 5,350 | | | $ | (22,590) | |
| | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | (3,224) | | | $ | 68,070 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 64,846 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures (2) | | (3,413) | | | (2,056) | | | — | | | (5,469) | |
Net (loss) gain on interest rate hedges | | $ | (6,637) | | | $ | 66,014 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 59,377 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net (loss) gain | | $ | (90,091) | | | $ | 121,528 | | | $ | 5,350 | | | $ | 36,787 | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Six Months Ended |
| | June 30, 2022 |
($s in thousands) | | Realized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in Net Income | | Unrealized Gain (Loss) Recognized in OCI | | Total Change in Fair Value |
Investment portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
Agency RMBS | | $ | (18,550) | | | $ | (174,599) | | | $ | (125,772) | | | $ | (318,921) | |
Agency CMBS | | — | | | — | | | (12,565) | | | (12,565) | |
CMBS IO | | — | | | (1,841) | | | (13,849) | | | (15,690) | |
Other non-Agency and loans | | — | | | 86 | | | (64) | | | 22 | |
Subtotal | | (18,550) | | | (176,354) | | | (152,250) | | | (347,154) | |
TBA securities (1) | | (174,177) | | | 9,452 | | | — | | | (164,725) | |
Net loss on investments | | $ | (192,727) | | | $ | (166,902) | | | $ | (152,250) | | | $ | (511,879) | |
| | | | | | | | |
Interest rate hedging portfolio: | | | | | | | | |
U.S. Treasury futures | | $ | 336,360 | | | $ | 103,048 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 439,408 | |
Interest rate swaptions | | — | | | 51,940 | | | — | | | 51,940 | |
Options on U.S. Treasury futures | | — | | | — | | | — | | | — | |
Net gain on interest rate hedges | | $ | 336,360 | | | $ | 154,988 | | | $ | — | | | $ | 491,348 | |
| | | | | | | | |
Total net gain (loss) | | $ | 143,633 | | | $ | (11,914) | | | $ | (152,250) | | | $ | (20,531) | |
1)Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on TBA securities are recorded within “gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net” on the Company’s consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
2)The Company did not hold any options on U.S. Treasury futures as of June 30, 2023. The unrealized loss of $(2.1) million shown for the six months ended June 30, 2023 represents the reversal of the unrealized gain recorded prior to the maturity date of the contract.
The fair value of our investment portfolio declined $(22.6) million during the six months ended June 30, 2023 primarily as a result of spread widening, particularly in higher coupon Agency RMBS. Though interest rates were volatile during the six month period and the back end of the yield curve declined late in first quarter of 2023 which resulted in net losses of $(110.6) million for the three months ended March 31, 2023, longer-term rates ended the six- month period only slightly higher or unchanged versus December 31, 2022, As a result, and partially due to the timing of when we rolled our interest rate hedges, we recovered first quarter interest rate hedge losses and recognized net gains of $59.4 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023.
For the six months ended June 30, 2022, the fair value of our investment portfolio declined $(511.9) million due to increasing interest rates and significant spread widening across all asset classes. These losses were mostly offset by net gains of $491.3 million during the six months ended June 30, 2022 from our interest rate hedges.
Operating Expenses
Operating expenses for the six months ended June 30, 2023 increased $0.5 million compared to the six months ended June 30, 2022. Compensation and benefits increased due to the hiring of two new employees and higher amortization of stock-based compensation expense while other general and administrative expenses declined due to lower legal and consulting expenses.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
In evaluating the Company’s financial and operating performance, management considers book value per common share, total economic return (loss) to common shareholders, and other operating results presented in accordance with GAAP as well as certain non-GAAP financial measures, which include the following: EAD to common shareholders (including per common share), adjusted net interest income and the related metric adjusted net interest spread. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures may be useful to investors because they are viewed by management as a measure of the investment portfolio’s return based on the effective yield of its investments, net of financing costs and, with respect to EAD, net of other normal recurring operating income/expenses. Drop income generated by TBA dollar roll positions, which is included in "gain (loss) on derivatives instruments, net" on the Company's consolidated statements of comprehensive income, is included in these non-GAAP financial measures because management views drop income as the economic equivalent of net interest income (interest income less implied financing cost) on the underlying Agency security from trade date to settlement date.
However, these non-GAAP financial measures are not a substitute for GAAP earnings and may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other REITs because they may not be calculated in the same manner. Furthermore, though EAD is one of several factors our management considers in determining the appropriate level of distributions to common shareholders, it should not be utilized in isolation, and it is not an accurate indication of the Company’s REIT taxable income or its distribution requirements in accordance with the Tax Code.
Reconciliations of EAD to common shareholders and adjusted net interest income to the related GAAP financial measures are provided below.
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| | Three Months Ended |
Reconciliations of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures: | | June 30, 2023 | | March 31, 2023 | | |
($s in thousands except per share data) | | | | | | |
Comprehensive (loss) income to common shareholders | | $ | 42,971 | | | $ | (28,852) | | | |
Less: | | | | | | |
Change in fair value of investments (1) | | 60,556 | | | (48,599) | | | |
Change in fair value of derivative instruments, net (2) | | (118,164) | | | 68,725 | | | |
EAD to common shareholders | | $ | (14,637) | | | $ | (8,726) | | | |
Average common shares outstanding | | 54,137,327 | | | 53,823,866 | | | |
EAD per common share | | $ | (0.27) | | | $ | (0.16) | | | |
| | | | | | |
Net interest (expense) income | | $ | (2,930) | | | $ | (462) | | | |
TBA drop income (3) | | (2,152) | | | 1,457 | | | |
Adjusted net interest (expense) income | | $ | (5,082) | | | $ | 995 | | | |
General and administrative expenses | | (7,197) | | | (7,372) | | | |
Other operating expense, net | | (435) | | | (426) | | | |
Preferred stock dividends | | (1,923) | | | (1,923) | | | |
EAD to common shareholders | | $ | (14,637) | | | $ | (8,726) | | | |
Adjusted net interest spread (4) | | (1.17) | % | | (0.75) | % | | |
(1)Amount includes realized and unrealized gains and losses recorded in net income and other comprehensive income due to changes in the fair value of the Company’s MBS and other investments.
(2)Amount includes unrealized gains and losses from changes in fair value of derivatives and realized gains and losses on terminated derivatives and excludes TBA drop income.
(3)TBA drop income is calculated by multiplying the notional amount of the TBA dollar roll positions by the difference in price between two TBA securities with the same terms but different settlement dates.
(4)The reconciliation for adjusted net interest spread to net interest spread is shown in “Results of Operations - Adjusted Net Interest Income”.
We primarily use U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our borrowing costs and the fair value of our investments. In the past, we used interest rate swaps to hedge interest rate risk and included the net periodic interest benefit/cost of those instruments in each of the non-GAAP measures mentioned above. Management is using U.S. Treasury futures instead of interest rate swaps because U.S. Treasury futures generally have lower margin requirements and offer more liquidity and flexibility in the current rapidly changing interest rate environment. The Company’s realized gains on its U.S. Treasury futures as well as other interest rate hedges are included in GAAP earnings, but are not included in EAD or adjusted net interest income. Furthermore, because these U.S. Treasury futures and other derivative instruments are designated as hedges for tax purposes, the realized gains are not distributable until amortized into REIT taxable income over the period originally hedged. Additional information regarding the expected impact of deferred tax hedge amortization on our estimated REIT taxable income is discussed in “Executive Overview” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources.”
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Our primary sources of liquidity include borrowings under repurchase arrangements and monthly principal and interest payments we receive on our investments. Additional sources may also include proceeds from the sale of investments, equity offerings, and net payments received from counterparties for derivative instruments. We use our liquidity to purchase investments, to pay amounts due on our repurchase agreement borrowings, and to pay our operating expenses and dividends on our common and preferred stock. We also use our liquidity to meet margin
requirements for our repurchase agreements and derivative transactions, including TBA contracts, under the terms of the related agreements. We may also periodically use liquidity to repurchase shares of the Company’s stock.
Our liquidity fluctuates based on our investment activities, our leverage, capital raising activities, and changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments. Our most liquid assets include unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and unencumbered Agency RMBS, CMBS, and CMBS IO. As of June 30, 2023, our most liquid assets were $561.5 million compared to $632.3 million as of December 31, 2022. We are continuing to maintain higher levels of available liquidity to protect our book value and to provide us greater financial flexibility against market volatility, which we believe is likely to continue for the near-term, especially given potential risk events on the horizon, such as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening measures, the pending deadline to raise U.S. debt ceiling, the impact on global markets stemming from global central bank policies, and the war between Russia and Ukraine.
We continuously assess the adequacy of our liquidity under various scenarios based on changes in the fair value of our investments and derivative instruments due to market factors such as changes in the absolute level of interest rates and the shape of the yield curve, credit spreads, lender haircuts, and prepayment speeds, which in turn have an impact on derivative margin requirements. In performing these analyses, we will also consider the current state of the fixed income markets and the repurchase agreement markets in order to determine if market forces such as supply-demand imbalances or structural changes to these markets could change the liquidity of MBS or the availability of financing. We also communicate frequently with our counterparties. We have not experienced any material changes in the terms of our repurchase agreements with our counterparties, and they have not indicated to us any concerns regarding access to liquidity.
Our perception of the liquidity of our investments and market conditions significantly influences our targeted leverage. In general, our leverage will increase if we view the risk-reward opportunity of higher leverage on our capital outweighs the risk to our liquidity and book value. Our leverage, which we calculate using total liabilities plus the cost basis of TBA long positions, was 7.7 times shareholders’ equity as of June 30, 2023. We include the cost basis of our TBA securities in evaluating our leverage because it is possible under certain market conditions that it may be uneconomical for us to roll a TBA long position into future months, which may result in us having to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and use cash or other financing sources to fund our total purchase commitment. Leverage based on repurchase agreement amounts outstanding was 4.8 times shareholders’ equity as of June 30, 2023.
Our repurchase agreement borrowings are principally uncommitted with terms renewable at the discretion of our lenders and generally have original terms to maturity of overnight to six months, though in some instances we may enter into longer-dated maturities depending on market conditions. We seek to maintain unused capacity under our existing repurchase agreement credit lines with multiple counterparties, which helps protect us in the event of a counterparty's failure to renew existing repurchase agreements. As part of our continuous evaluation of counterparty risk, we maintain our highest counterparty exposures with broker dealer subsidiaries of regulated financial institutions or primary dealers.
The amount outstanding for our repurchase agreement borrowings will typically fluctuate in any given period as it is dependent upon a number of factors, but particularly the extent to which we are active in buying and selling securities, including the volume of activity in dollar roll transactions versus buying specified pools. The following table presents information regarding the balances of our repurchase agreement borrowings as of and for the periods indicated:
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| Repurchase Agreements |
($s in thousands) | Balance Outstanding As of Quarter End | | Average Balance Outstanding For the Quarter Ended | | Maximum Balance Outstanding During the Quarter Ended |
June 30, 2023 | $ | 4,201,901 | | | $ | 3,447,406 | | | $ | 4,203,788 | |
March 31, 2023 | 2,937,124 | | | 2,713,481 | | | 2,959,263 | |
December 31, 2022 | 2,644,405 | | | 2,727,274 | | | 3,072,483 | |
September 30, 2022 | 2,991,876 | | | 2,398,268 | | | 3,082,138 | |
June 30, 2022 | 2,202,648 | | | 2,486,217 | | | 2,949,918 | |
March 31, 2022 | 2,952,802 | | | 2,806,212 | | | 2,973,475 | |
December 31, 2021 | 2,849,916 | | | 2,701,191 | | | 2,873,523 | |
September 30, 2021 | 2,527,065 | | | 2,529,023 | | | 2,590,185 | |
June 30, 2021 | 2,321,043 | | | 2,155,200 | | | 2,415,037 | |
March 31, 2021 | 2,032,089 | | | 2,158,121 | | | 2,437,163 | |
December 31, 2020 | 2,437,163 | | | 2,500,639 | | | 2,594,683 | |
For our repurchase agreement borrowings, we are required to post and maintain margin to the lender (i.e., collateral in excess of the repurchase agreement borrowing) in order to support the amount of the financing. This excess collateral is often referred to as a “haircut” and is intended to provide the lender protection against fluctuations in fair value of the collateral and/or the failure by us to repay the borrowing at maturity. Lenders have the right to change haircut requirements at maturity of the repurchase agreement and may change their haircuts based on market conditions and the perceived riskiness of the collateral pledged. If the fair value of the collateral falls below the amount required by the lender, the lender has the right to demand additional margin, or collateral.. These demands are referred to as “margin calls,” and if we fail to meet any margin call, our lenders have the right to terminate the repurchase agreement and sell any collateral pledged. The weighted average haircut for our borrowings as of June 30, 2023 was consistent with prior periods, which has typically averaged less than 5% for borrowings collateralized with Agency RMBS and CMBS and between 12-16% for borrowings collateralized with CMBS IO.
The collateral we post in excess of our repurchase agreement borrowing with any counterparty is also typically referred to by us as “equity at risk,” which represents the potential loss to the Company if the counterparty is unable or unwilling to return collateral securing the repurchase agreement borrowing at its maturity. The counterparties with whom we have the greatest amounts of equity at risk may vary significantly during any given period due to the short-term and generally uncommitted nature of the repurchase agreement borrowings. As of June 30, 2023, the Company had amounts outstanding under 25 different repurchase agreements and did not have more than 5% of equity at risk with any counterparty or group of related counterparties.
We have various financial and operating covenants in certain of our repurchase agreements, which we monitor and evaluate on an ongoing basis for compliance as well as for impacts these customary covenants may have on our operating and financing flexibility. Currently, we do not believe we are subject to any covenants that materially restrict our financing flexibility. We were in full compliance with our debt covenants as of June 30, 2023, and we are not aware of circumstances which could potentially result in our non-compliance in the foreseeable future.
Derivative Instruments
Derivative instruments we enter into may require us to post initial margin at inception and daily variation margin based on subsequent changes in their fair value. Daily variation margin requirements also entitle us to receive collateral from our counterparties if the value of amounts owed to us under the derivative agreement exceeds the
minimum margin requirement. The collateral posted as margin by us is typically in the form of cash. As of June 30, 2023, we had cash collateral posted to our counterparties of $132.6 million under these agreements.
Collateral requirements for interest rate derivative instruments are typically governed by the central clearing exchange and the associated futures commission merchant, which may establish margin requirements in excess of the clearing exchange. Collateral requirements for our TBA contracts are governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation and, if applicable, by our third-party brokerage agreements, which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Our TBA contracts, which are subject to master securities forward transaction agreements published by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as well as supplemental terms and conditions with each counterparty, generally provide that valuations for our TBA contracts and any pledged collateral are to be obtained from a generally recognized source agreed to by both parties. However, in certain circumstances, our counterparties have the sole discretion to determine the value of the TBA contract and any pledged collateral. In such instances, our counterparties are required to act in good faith in making determinations of value. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
Dividends
As a REIT, we are required to distribute to our shareholders amounts equal to at least 90% of our REIT taxable income for each taxable year after certain deductions. When declaring dividends, our Board of Directors considers the Company’s taxable income, the REIT distribution requirements of the Tax Code, financial performance measures, and maintaining compliance with dividend requirements of the Series C Preferred Stock, along with other factors that the Board of Directors may deem relevant from time to time.
Currently, we are primarily using U.S. Treasury futures to hedge the impact of increasing interest rates on our financing costs and fair value of our investments. Realized and unrealized gains (losses) on these derivative instruments are included in GAAP earnings in the same reporting period in which the derivative instrument matures or is terminated by the Company, but are not included in EAD to common shareholders during any reporting period. Furthermore, because we designate these derivative instruments as interest rate hedges for tax purposes, realized gains and losses recognized in GAAP net income are generally not recognized in REIT taxable income until future periods. The following table provides the projected amortization of our net deferred tax hedge gains as of June 30, 2023 that we expect to be recognized as taxable income over the periods indicated:
| | | | | | | | |
Period of Recognition for Remaining Hedge Gains, Net | | June 30, 2023 |
| | ($ in thousands) |
Third quarter 2023 | | $ | 17,970 | |
Fourth quarter 2023 | | 18,096 | |
Fiscal year 2024 | | 74,607 | |
Fiscal year 2025 and thereafter | | 539,070 | |
| | $ | 649,743 | |
As of June 30, 2023, we also had $475.0 million in capital loss carryforwards, the majority of which expire in 2027, and NOL carryforwards of $9.3 million, which will expire over the next 3 years. Due to these amounts and other temporary and permanent differences between GAAP net income and REIT taxable income coupled with the degree of uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates, we cannot reasonably estimate how much the deferred tax hedge gains to be recognized will impact our dividend declarations during 2023 or in any given year.
We generally fund our dividend distributions through our cash flows from operations. If we make dividend distributions in excess of our operating cash flows during the period, whether for purposes of meeting our REIT distribution requirements or other reasons, those distributions are generally funded either through our existing cash balances or through the return of principal from our investments (either through repayment or sale). Please refer to "Operating and Regulatory Structure" within Part I, Item 1, "Business" as well as Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” of our 2022 Form 10-K for additional important information regarding dividends declared on our taxable income.
RECENT ACCOUNTING PRONOUNCEMENTS
There were no accounting pronouncements issued during the six months ended June 30, 2023 that are expected to have a material impact on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations. Please refer to Note 1 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements contained within Part I, Item 1 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for additional information.
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES
The discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based in large part upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The preparation of our consolidated financial statements requires management to make estimates, judgments and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates and judgments on historical experience and assumptions believed to be reasonable under current facts and circumstances. Actual results, however, may differ from the estimated amounts we have recorded.
Critical accounting estimates are defined as those that require management's most difficult, subjective or complex judgments, and which may result in materially different results under different assumptions and conditions. Our critical accounting estimates are discussed in Part II, Item 7, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” of our 2022 Form 10-K under “Critical Accounting Estimates.” There have been no significant changes in our critical accounting estimates during the three months ended June 30, 2023.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain written statements in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q that are not historical facts constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act, as amended, and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. Statements in this report addressing expectations, assumptions, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, future events, developments that we expect or anticipate will occur in the future, and future operating results, capital management, and dividend policy are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based upon management’s beliefs, assumptions, and expectations as of the date of this report regarding future events and operating performance, taking into account all information currently available to us, and are applicable only as of the date of this report. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by use of words such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “plan,” “may,” “will,” “intend,” “should,” “could” or similar expressions. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are not historical facts and may be based on projections, assumptions, expectations, and anticipated events that do not materialize. Except as required by law, we are not obligated to, and do not intend to, update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Forward-looking statements in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q may include, but are not limited to statements about:
•Our business and investment strategy including our ability to generate acceptable risk-adjusted returns and our target investment allocations, and our views on the future performance of MBS and other investments;
•Our views on the macroeconomic environment, monetary and fiscal policy, and conditions in the investment, credit, interest rate and derivatives markets;
•Our views on inflation, market interest rates and market spreads;
•Our views on the effect of actual or proposed actions of the Federal Reserve or other central banks with respect to monetary policy (including the targeted Fed Funds rate), and the potential impact of these actions on interest rates, borrowing costs, inflation or unemployment;
•The effect of regulatory initiatives of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, other financial regulators, and other central banks;
•Our financing strategy including our target leverage ratios, our use of TBA dollar roll transactions, and anticipated trends in financing costs including TBA dollar roll transaction costs, and our hedging strategy
including changes to the derivative instruments to which we are a party, and changes to government regulation of hedging instruments and our use of these instruments;
•Our investment portfolio composition and target investments;
•Our investment portfolio performance, including the fair value, yields, and forecasted prepayment speeds of our investments;
•Our liquidity and ability to access financing, and the anticipated availability and cost of financing;
•Our capital stock activity including the impact of stock issuances and repurchases;
•The amount, timing, and funding of future dividends;
•Our use of our tax NOL carryforward and other tax loss carryforwards;
•Future competition for, and availability of, investments, financing and capital;
•Estimates of future interest expenses, including related to the Company’s repurchase agreements and derivative instruments;
•The status and effect of legislative reforms and regulatory rule-making or review processes, and the status of reform efforts and other business developments in the repurchase agreement financing market;
•Market, industry and economic trends, and how these trends and related economic data may impact the behavior of market participants and financial regulators;
•The impact of recent bank failures, potential new regulations and the potential for other bank failures this year:
•The impact of debt ceiling negotiations on interest rates, spreads, the U.S. Treasury market as well as the impact more broadly on fixed income and equity markets:
•Uncertainties regarding the war between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impacts on macroeconomic conditions, including, among other things, interest rates;
•The financial position and credit worthiness of the depository institutions in which the Company’s MBS and cash deposits are held;
•The impact of applicable tax and accounting requirements on us including our tax treatment of derivative instruments such as TBAs, interest rate swaps, options and futures;
•Our future compliance with covenants in our master repurchase agreements, ISDA agreements, and debt covenants in our other contractual agreements;
•Our reliance on a single service provider of our trading, portfolio management, risk reporting and accounting services systems;
•The implementation in a timely and cost-effective manner of our operating platform, which includes trading, portfolio management, risk reporting, and accounting services systems, and the anticipated benefits thereof; and
•Possible future effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or any global health crisis.
Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Not all of these risks and other factors are known to us. New risks and uncertainties arise over time, and it is not possible to predict those events or how they may affect us. The projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs upon which the forward-looking statements are based can also change as a result of these risks or other factors. If such a risk or other factor materializes in future periods, our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations may vary materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements.
While it is not possible to identify all factors that may cause actual results to differ from historical results or from any results expressed or implied by forward-looking statements, or that may cause our projections, assumptions, expectations or beliefs to change, some of those factors include the following:
•the risks and uncertainties referenced in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, especially those incorporated by reference into Part II, Item 1A, “Risk Factors,”;
•our ability to find suitable reinvestment opportunities;
•changes in domestic economic conditions;
•geopolitical events, such as terrorism, war or other military conflict, including increased uncertainty regarding the war between Russia and the Ukraine and the related impact on macroeconomic conditions as a result of such conflict;
•changes in interest rates and credit spreads, including the repricing of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities;
•our investment portfolio performance particularly as it relates to cash flow, prepayment rates and credit performance;
•the impact on markets and asset prices from changes in the Federal Reserve’s policies regarding the purchases of Agency RMBS, Agency CMBS, and U.S. Treasuries;
•actual or anticipated changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy or the monetary policy of other central banks;
•adverse reactions in U.S. financial markets related to actions of foreign central banks or the economic performance of foreign economies including in particular China, Japan, the European Union, and the United Kingdom;
•uncertainty concerning the long-term fiscal health and stability of the United States;
•the cost and availability of financing, including the future availability of financing due to changes to regulation of, and capital requirements imposed upon, financial institutions;
•the cost and availability of new equity capital;
•changes in our leverage and use of leverage;
•changes to our investment strategy, operating policies, dividend policy or asset allocations;
•the quality of performance of third-party service providers, including our sole third-party service provider for our critical operations and trade functions;
•the loss or unavailability of our third-party service provider’s service and technology that supports critical functions of our business related to our trading and borrowing activities due to outages, interruptions, or other failures;
•the level of defaults by borrowers on loans underlying MBS;
•changes in our industry;
•increased competition;
•changes in government regulations affecting our business;
•changes or volatility in the repurchase agreement financing markets and other credit markets;
•changes to the market for interest rate swaps and other derivative instruments, including changes to margin requirements on derivative instruments;
•uncertainty regarding continued government support of the U.S. financial system and U.S. housing and real estate markets, or to reform the U.S. housing finance system including the resolution of the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
•the composition of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve;
•the political environment in the U.S.;
•systems failures or cybersecurity incidents; and
•exposure to current and future claims and litigation.
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is the exposure to losses resulting from changes in market factors. Our business strategy exposes us to a variety of market risks, including interest rate, spread, prepayment, credit, liquidity, and reinvestment
risks. These risks can and do cause fluctuations in our liquidity, comprehensive income and book value as discussed below.
Interest Rate Risk
Investing in interest-rate sensitive investments such as MBS and TBA securities subjects us to interest rate risk. Interest rate risk results from investing in securities that have a fixed coupon or a floating coupon that may not immediately adjust for changes in interest rates. Interest rate risk also results from the mismatch between the duration of our assets versus the duration of our liabilities and hedges. The amount of the impact will depend on the composition of our portfolio, our hedging strategy, the effectiveness of our hedging instruments as well as the magnitude and the duration of the change in interest rates.
We manage interest rate risk within tolerances set by our Board of Directors. We use interest rate hedging instruments to mitigate the impact of changing interest rates on the market value of our assets and on our interest expense from repurchase agreements used to finance our investments. Our hedging methods are based on many factors, including, but not limited to, our estimates with regard to future interest rates and expected levels of prepayments of our assets. If prepayments are slower or faster than assumed, the maturity of our investments will also differ from our expectations, which could reduce the effectiveness of our hedging strategies and may cause losses that adversely affect our cash flow. Estimates of prepayment speeds can vary significantly by investor for the same security, and therefore estimates of security and portfolio duration can vary significantly between market participants.
We continuously monitor market conditions, economic conditions, interest rates and other market activity and frequently adjust the composition of our investments and hedges throughout any given period. As such, the projections for changes in market value provided below are limited in usefulness because the modeling assumes no changes to the composition of our investment portfolio or hedging instruments as of the dates indicated. Changes in types of our investments, the returns earned on these investments, future interest rates, credit spreads, the shape of the yield curve, the availability of financing, and/or the mix of our investments and financings including derivative instruments may cause actual results to differ significantly from the modeled results shown in the tables below. There can be no assurance that assumed events used to model the results shown below will occur, or that other events will not occur, that will affect the outcomes; therefore, the modeled results shown in the tables below and all related disclosures constitute forward-looking statements.
Management considers changes in the shape of the interest rate curves in assessing and managing portfolio interest rate risk on the market value of its investments and common equity. Because interest rates do not typically move in a parallel fashion from period to period (as can be seen by the graph for U.S. Treasury rates in Item 2, “Executive Overview”), the tables below show the projected sensitivity of the market value of our financial instruments and the percentage change in shareholders’ equity assuming instantaneous parallel shifts and non-parallel shifts in market interest rates.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | June 30, 2023 |
| | Parallel Decrease in Interest Rates of | | Parallel Increase in Interest Rates of |
| | 100 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 100 Basis Points |
Type of Instrument (1) | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity |
RMBS | | 3.3 | % | | 30.8 | % | | 1.7 | % | | 16.0 | % | | (1.8) | % | | (16.9) | % | | (3.7) | % | | (34.2) | % |
CMBS | | 0.1 | % | | 0.5 | % | | 0.03 | % | | 0.2 | % | | (0.02) | % | | (0.2) | % | | — | % | | (0.4) | % |
CMBS IO | | 0.1 | % | | 0.6 | % | | 0.03 | % | | 0.3 | % | | (0.03) | % | | (0.3) | % | | (0.1) | % | | (0.6) | % |
TBAs | | 1.1 | % | | 9.9 | % | | 0.6 | % | | 5.5 | % | | (0.7) | % | | (6.6) | % | | (1.5) | % | | (13.9) | % |
Interest rate hedges | | (4.4) | % | | (41.1) | % | | (2.2) | % | | (20.3) | % | | 2.1 | % | | 19.7 | % | | 4.2 | % | | 38.8 | % |
Total | | 0.1 | % | | 0.7 | % | | 0.2 | % | | 1.8 | % | | (0.5) | % | | (4.3) | % | | (1.1) | % | | (10.3) | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | December 31, 2022 |
| | Parallel Decrease in Interest Rates of | | Parallel Increase in Interest Rates of |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | 100 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 50 Basis Points | | 100 Basis Points |
Type of Instrument (1) | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value | | % of Common Equity |
RMBS | | 2.8 | % | | 20.9 | % | | 1.4 | % | | 10.6 | % | | (1.4) | % | | (10.6) | % | | (2.8) | % | | (21.0) | % |
CMBS | | 0.1 | % | | 0.5 | % | | 0.04 | % | | 0.3 | % | | (0.03) | % | | (0.3) | % | | (0.1) | % | | (0.5) | % |
CMBS IO | | 0.1 | % | | 0.7 | % | | 0.05 | % | | 0.4 | % | | (0.05) | % | | (0.4) | % | | (0.1) | % | | (0.7) | % |
TBAs | | 2.0 | % | | 15.2 | % | | 1.1 | % | | 8.2 | % | | (1.2) | % | | (9.1) | % | | (2.5) | % | | (18.9) | % |
Interest rate hedges | | (5.6) | % | | (41.3) | % | | (2.8) | % | | (20.5) | % | | 2.7 | % | | 20.2 | % | | 5.4 | % | | 40.1 | % |
Total | | (0.6) | % | | (4.0) | % | | (0.2) | % | | (1.0) | % | | — | % | | (0.2) | % | | (0.1) | % | | (1.0) | % |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Non-Parallel Shifts | | June 30, 2023 | | December 31, 2022 |
Basis Point Change in 2-year UST | | Basis Point Change in 10-year UST | | % of Market Value (1) | | % of Common Equity | | % of Market Value (1) | | % of Common Equity |
+25 | | 0 | | 0.1 | % | | 0.5 | % | | 0.2 | % | | 1.7 | % |
+25 | | +50 | | (0.5) | % | | (4.3) | % | | (0.1) | % | | (1.0) | % |
+50 | | +25 | | (0.3) | % | | (2.4) | % | | 0.1 | % | | 0.6 | % |
+50 | | +100 | | (1.1) | % | | (10.4) | % | | (0.4) | % | | (2.9) | % |
0 | | -25 | | 0.1 | % | | 1.1 | % | | 0.1 | % | | 0.4 | % |
-10 | | -50 | | 0.2 | % | | 1.6 | % | | 0.01 | % | | 0.1 | % |
-25 | | -75 | | 0.1 | % | | 0.7 | % | | (0.2) | % | | (1.4) | % |
(1)Includes changes in market value of our investments and derivative instruments, including TBA securities, but excludes changes in market value of our financings which are not carried at fair value on our balance sheet due to their short-term maturities. The projections for market value do not assume any change in credit spreads.
Our investment portfolio as of June 30, 2023 consists of higher coupon assets compared to December 31, 2022, which increased the duration risk in our investment portfolio. To mitigate, we moved to a longer duration position as of June 30, 2023 relative to that as of December 31, 2022. As a result, our investment portfolio and book value are projected to experience greater declines in an increasing interest rate environment and increase in value in a declining rate environment. In addition, as of December 31, 2022, we held $250.0 million notional in put options on 10-year U.S. Treasury futures, which would have increased in fair value in an increasing rate environment. Without those put options at June 30, 2023, stress runs for higher rates, such as the +50/+100 shift, show a greater decline in market value and book value.
Spread Risk
Spread risk is the risk of loss from an increase in the market spread between the yield on an investment versus its benchmark index. Changes in market spreads represent the market's valuation of the perceived riskiness of an asset relative to risk-free rates. Widening spreads reduce the market value of our investments as market participants require additional yield to hold riskier assets. Market spreads could change based on macroeconomic or systemic factors as well as the factors specific to a particular security such as prepayment performance or credit performance. Other factors that could impact credit spreads include technical issues such as supply and demand for a particular type of security or Federal Reserve monetary policy. We do not hedge spread risk given the complexity of hedging credit spreads and in our opinion, the lack of liquid instruments available to use as hedges.
Fluctuations in spreads typically vary based on the type of investment. Sensitivity to changes in market spreads is derived from models that are dependent on various assumptions, and actual changes in market value in
response to changes in market spreads could differ materially from the projected sensitivity if actual conditions differ from these assumptions.
The table below shows the projected sensitivity of the market value of our investments given the indicated change in market spreads as of the dates indicated:
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | June 30, 2023 | | December 31, 2022 |
| | Percentage Change in | | Percentage Change in |
Basis Point Change in Market Spreads | | Market Value of Investments (1) | | % of Common Equity | | Market Value of Investments (1) | | % of Common Equity |
+20/+50 (2) | | (1.2) | % | | (10.8) | % | | (1.2) | % | | (9.1) | % |
+10 | | (0.6) | % | | (5.4) | % | | (0.6) | % | | (4.5) | % |
-10 | | 0.6 | % | | 5.4 | % | | 0.6 | % | | 4.5 | % |
-20/-50 (2) | | 1.2 | % | | 10.8 | % | | 1.2 | % | | 9.1 | % |
(1) Includes changes in market value of our MBS investments, including TBA securities.
(2) Assumes a 20-basis point shift in Agency and non-Agency RMBS and CMBS and a 50-basis point shift in Agency
and non-Agency CMBS IO.
Prepayment Risk
Prepayment risk is the risk of an early, unscheduled return of principal on an investment. We are subject to prepayment risk from premiums paid on investments, which are amortized as a reduction in interest income using the effective interest method under GAAP. Our prepayment risk as of June 30, 2023 has declined relative to December 31, 2022 and prior periods as the majority of our MBS portfolio consists of securities owned near or below par and prepayment speeds have declined in the current higher interest rate environment.
For additional information regarding the factors that impact prepayment risk as well as how we seek to mitigate prepayment risk, please refer to Items 1A and 7A of our 2022 Form 10-K.
Credit Risk
Credit risk is the risk that we will not receive all contractual amounts due on investments that we own due to default by the borrower or due to a deficiency in proceeds from the liquidation of the collateral securing the obligation. Credit losses on loans could result in lower or negative yields on our investments.
Agency RMBS and Agency CMBS have credit risk to the extent that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac fails to remit payments on the MBS for which they have issued a guaranty of payment. Given the improved financial performance and conservatorship of these entities and the continued support of the U.S. government, we believe this risk is low.
Agency and non-Agency CMBS IO represent the right to excess interest (and not principal) on the underlying loans. These securities are exposed to the loss of investment basis in the event a loan collateralizing the security liquidates without paying yield maintenance or prepayment penalty. This will typically occur when the underlying loan is in default and proceeds from the disposition of the loan collateral are insufficient to pay the prepayment consideration. To mitigate credit risk of investing in CMBS IO, we invest in primarily AAA-rated securities that are stripped off senior tranches, which means we receive the highest payment priority and are the last to absorb losses in the event of a shortfall in cash flows. Our Agency CMBS IO are Class X1 from Freddie Mac Series K deals from which interest continues to be advanced even in the event of an underlying default up until liquidation, which is the triggering event that disrupts the Agency CMBS IO cash flow. For non-Agency CMBS IO, the servicer and master servicer will determine if interest will continue to be advanced upon default of a loan based on their estimate of liquidation proceeds. Senior non-Agency CMBS IO may benefit from changes in contractual cash flows, including modifications or loan extensions as the senior classes can remain outstanding beyond the original maturity date.
Liquidity Risk
We have liquidity risk principally from the use of recourse repurchase agreements to finance our ownership of securities. Our repurchase agreements are renewable at the discretion of our lenders and do not contain guaranteed roll-over terms. If we fail to repay the lender at maturity, the lender has the right to immediately sell the collateral and pursue us for any shortfall if the sales proceeds are inadequate to cover the repurchase agreement financing. In addition, declines in the market value of our investments pledged as collateral for repurchase agreement borrowings and for our derivative instruments may result in counterparties initiating margin calls for additional collateral.
Our use of TBA long positions as a means of investing in and financing Agency RMBS also exposes us to liquidity risk in the event that we are unable to roll or terminate our TBA contracts prior to their settlement date. If we are unable to roll or terminate our TBA long positions, we could be required to take physical delivery of the underlying securities and settle our obligations for cash, which could negatively impact our liquidity position or force us to sell assets under adverse conditions if financing is not available to us on acceptable terms.
For further information, including how we attempt to mitigate liquidity risk and monitor our liquidity position, please refer to “Liquidity and Capital Resources” in Item 2 of this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q as well as within Item 7 of our 2022 Form10-K.
Reinvestment Risk
We are subject to reinvestment risk as a result of the prepayment, repayment and sales of our investments. In order to maintain our investment portfolio size and our earnings, we need to reinvest capital received from these events into new interest-earning assets or TBA securities, and if market yields on new investments are lower, our interest income will decline. In addition, based on market conditions, our leverage, and our liquidity profile, we may decide to not reinvest the cash flows we receive from our investment portfolio even when attractive reinvestment opportunities are available, or we may decide to reinvest in assets with lower yield but greater liquidity. If we retain capital or pay dividends to return capital to shareholders rather than reinvest capital, or if we invest capital in lower yielding assets for liquidity reasons, the size of our investment portfolio and the amount of income generated by our investment portfolio will likely decline.