Item 1A. Risk Factors

 

In evaluating the Company’s business, you should consider the following discussion of risk factors, in addition to other information contained in this report and in the Company’s other public filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.  Any such risks could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flow and prospects. However, the risks described below or incorporated by reference herein are not the only risks facing us. Additional risks and uncertainties not currently known to us or those we currently view to be immaterial may also materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flow and prospects.

Our financial performance is dependent on international operations, which exposes us to various risks.

Our international operations account for nearly all of our total revenues. Our financial performance is subject to risks inherent in operating and expanding our international membership warehouse club business, which include:

Circumstances relating to these risks may arise, which may then result in disruption to our sales, banking transactions, operations, merchandise shipments, and currency exchange rates, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.

Any failure by us to manage our widely dispersed operations could adversely affect our business .

 

As of August 31, 2015 , the Company had in operation 37 warehouse clubs located in 12 countries and one U.S. territory ( six each in Costa Rica and Colombia; five in Panama, four in Trinidad; three each in Guatemala, Honduras, and in the Dominican Republic; two in El Salvador; and one each in Aruba, Barbados, Jamaica, Nicaragua and the United States Virgin Islands).  We will need to continually evaluate the adequacy of our existing infrastructure, systems and procedures, financial controls, inventory controls and safety controls and make upgrades from time to time. Moreover, we will be required to continually analyze the sufficiency of our inventory distribution channels and systems and may require additional or expanded facilities in order to support our operations. We may not adequately anticipate all the changing demands that will be imposed on these systems. Any inability to effectively update our internal systems or procedures as required could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We face significant competition.

Our international warehouse club business competes with exporters, importers, wholesalers, local retailers and trading companies in various international markets. Some of our competitors have greater resources, buying power and name recognition than we have.  In the countries in which we operate, we do not currently face direct competition from U.S. membership warehouse club operators. However, we do face competition from various retail formats such as hypermarkets, supermarkets, cash and carry, home improvement centers, electronic retailers and specialty stores, including those within Latin America that are owned and operated by large U.S. and International retailers. We have noted that certain retailers are making investments in upgrading their locations which may result in increased competition. Further, it is possible that current U.S. warehouse club operators may decide to enter our markets and compete more directly with us in a similar warehouse club format.  We may be required to implement price reductions to remain competitive if any of our competitors reduce prices in any of our markets. Moreover, our ability to operate profitably in our markets, particularly small markets, may be adversely affected by the existence or entry of competing warehouse clubs or discount retailers.

Future sales growth depends, in part, on our ability to successfully open new warehouse clubs and grow sales in our existing locations.

    Sales growth at the existing warehouse clubs can be impacted by, among other things, the physical limitations of the warehouse clubs, which restrict the amount of merchandise that can be safely stored and displayed in the warehouse clubs and the number of members that can be accommodated during business hours. As a result, sales growth will depend, in part, upon our acquiring suitable sites for additional warehouse clubs. Land for purchase or lease, or buildings to be leased, in the size and locations in those markets that would be suitable for new PriceSmart warehouse clubs may be limited in number or not be available or financially feasible. In this regard, we compete with other retailers and businesses for suitable locations. Additionally, local land use and other regulations restricting the construction and operation of our warehouse clubs and environmental regulations may impact our ability to find suitable locations, and increase the cost of constructing, leasing and operating our warehouse clubs. We have experienced these limitations in Colombia and in some of our other existing markets, which has negatively affected our growth rates in those markets. Limitations on the availability of appropriate sites for new warehouse clubs in the areas targeted by us could have a material adverse effect on the future growth of PriceSmart.

In some cases, we have more than one warehouse club in a single metropolitan area, and we may open new warehouse clubs in certain areas where we already have warehouse clubs. A new warehouse club in an area already served by existing warehouse clubs may draw members away from existing warehouse clubs and adversely affect comparable warehouse club sales performance. We experienced this adverse effect on comparable sales for existing warehouse clubs recently within our Costa Rica and Honduras markets when we opened one new warehouse club in each of these markets in areas that already had an existing warehouse club.

We operate in comparatively small markets. Given the growth of our sales over the past few years, market saturation could impact the rate of future sales growth.

We also intend to open warehouse clubs in new markets. The risks associated with entering a new market include potential difficulties in attracting members due to a lack of familiarity with us and our lack of familiarity with local member preferences. In addition, entry into new markets may bring us into competition with new competitors or with existing competitors with a large, established market presence. As a result, our new warehouse clubs might not be successful in new markets.

We might not identify in a timely manner or effectively respond to changes in consumer preferences for merchandise, which could adversely affect our relationship with members, demand for our products and market share.  

Our success depends, in part, on our ability to identify and respond to trends in demographics and changes in consumer preferences for merchandise. It is difficult to consistently and successfully predict the products and services our members will demand. Failure to timely identify or respond effectively to changing consumer tastes, preferences or spending patterns could adversely affect our relationship with our members, the demand for our products and our market share. If we are not successful at predicting sales trends and adjusting purchases accordingly, we might have too much or too little inventory of certain products. If we overstock a product, we might be required to reduce prices or otherwise liquidate the excess inventory, which could have an adverse effect on margins (net sales less merchandise costs) and operating income. If we do not have sufficient quantities of a popular product, we might lose sales and profits we otherwise could have made.

Although we have begun to offer limited online shopping to our members, our sales could be adversely affected if one or more major international online retailers were to enter our markets or if other competitors were to offer a superior online experience. 

Online sales currently represent a small fraction of the total sales in our markets of the types of merchandise we offer, but online shopping may become more prevalent in our markets as we and our competitors begin to offer more opportunities for online shopping and as delivery systems in our markets improve.  While major international online retailers have not established a significant presence in any of our markets, it is possible that they or smaller regional companies will offer online shopping in our markets.  In most markets, our members can order products from our website that are shipped from the U.S. to the members' local warehouse clubs for pickup.  In Colombia, members can order items for delivery to them from the U.S. and our warehouse clubs.  We continue to invest in our websites and systems with the long-term objective of offering our members a seamless multichannel experience.  If we do not successfully develop and maintain a relevant multichannel experience for our members, our ability to compete and our results of operations could be adversely affected.

Our profitability is vulnerable to cost increases.

Future increases in costs such as the cost of merchandise, wage and benefits costs, shipping rates, freight costs, fuel costs, utilities and other store occupancy costs may reduce our profitability. We are dependent on our ability to adjust our product sales pricing, to operate more efficiently, or to increase our comparable store net sales in order to offset currency rate changes, inflation, or other factors that can increase costs. We might not be able to operate more efficiently or increase our comparable store net sales in the future to a great enough extent to offset increased costs. Please see Item 7, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” of this Form 10-K for further discussion of the effect of Currency rate changes, Inflation and Other Economic Factors on our operations.

We face difficulties in the shipment of and inherent risks in the importation of, merchandise to our warehouse clubs.

Our warehouse clubs typically import nearly half or more of the merchandise that they sell. This merchandise originates from various countries and is transported over long distances, typically over water, which results in:

Moreover, each country in which we operate has different governmental rules and regulations regarding the importation of foreign products. Changes to the rules and regulations governing the importation of merchandise may result in additional delays, costs or barriers in our deliveries of products to our warehouse clubs or may affect the type of products we select to import. In addition, only a limited number of transportation companies service our regions. The inability or failure of one or more key transportation companies to provide transportation services to us, any collusion among the transportation companies regarding shipping prices or terms, changes in the regulations that govern shipping tariffs or the importation of products, or any other disruption to our ability to import our merchandise could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.

  We are exposed to weather and other natural disaster risks.

Our operations are subject to volatile weather conditions and natural disasters, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, which are encountered periodically in the regions in which our warehouse clubs are located and which could result in significant damage to, destruction of, or temporary closure of, our warehouse clubs. Warehouse club closures associated with heavy rains, local flooding and government advisories to stay off the roads during a natural disaster, such as a hurricane, could result in many days of lost sales. Similar risks could negatively affect our business if they were to arise in other points on our international merchandise distribution chain, in particular our distribution centers or ports of origin or destination. Losses from business interruption may not be adequately compensated by insurance and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

General economic conditions could adversely impact our business in various respects.

A slowdown in the economies of one or more of the countries in which we operate or adverse changes in economic conditions affecting discretionary consumer spending, such as employment rates, business conditions, inflation, fuel and energy costs, consumer debt levels, lack of available credit, interest rates, tax rates and consumer spending patterns in each of our foreign markets, may adversely affect our business by reducing overall consumer purchasing power and could negatively impact our growth, sales and profitability. In addition, a significant decline in the economies of the countries in which our warehouse clubs are located may lead to increased governmental ownership or regulation of the economy, higher interest rates, increased barriers to entry such as higher tariffs and taxes, and reduced demand for imported goods.  Factors such as declining expatriate remittances, reduced tourism, and less foreign investment could negatively impact the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. The potential for economic instability, the impact of a global recession and its duration, the potential for failures or realignments of financial institutions and the related impact on available consumer credit could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

We are subject to risks associated with possible changes in our relationships with third parties with which we do business, as well as the performance of such third parties.

We have important ongoing relationships with various third-party suppliers of services and merchandise. These include, but are not limited to, local and regional merchandise suppliers, information technology suppliers, warehouse facilities and equipment suppliers, financial institutions, credit card issuers and processors, and lessors. Significant changes in the relationships or the agreements that govern the terms through which business is conducted could adversely affect our ability to purchase merchandise in sufficient quantities and at competitive prices, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operation. We have no assurances of continued supply, pricing or access to new merchandise, and any supplier could at any time change the terms upon which it sells to us or discontinue selling to us. In addition, the manner in which we acquire merchandise, either directly from the parent company or through a local subsidiary or distributor, is subject to change from time to time based on changes initiated by the supplier and for reasons beyond our control. Significant changes or disruptions in how we acquire merchandise from these suppliers could negatively affect our access to such merchandise, as well as the cost of merchandise to us and hence our members, which could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.

Additionally, our suppliers are subject to risks, including labor disputes, union organizing activities, financial liquidity, inclement weather, natural disasters, supply constraints, regulatory compliance with local and international agencies and general economic and political conditions that could limit their ability to timely provide us with acceptable merchandise, which could adversely affect our business. Furthermore, one or more of our suppliers might fail to comply with appropriate production, labor, environmental and other practices, as well as quality control, legal or regulatory standards. We might not identify any such deficiencies, which could lead to litigation and recalls, damage our reputation and our brands, increase our costs, and otherwise adversely impact our business.

We rely extensively on computer systems to process transactions, summarize results and manage our business. Failure to adequately maintain our systems and disruptions in our systems could harm our business and adversely affect our results of operations.

Given the number of individual transactions we have each year, we seek to maintain uninterrupted operation of our business-critical computer systems. Our computer systems, including back-up systems, are subject to damage or interruption from power outages, computer and telecommunications failures, computer viruses, internal or external security breaches, catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, tornadoes and hurricanes, and errors by our employees. If our computer systems and back-up systems are damaged or cease to function properly, we may have to make significant investments to fix or replace them, and we may suffer interruptions in our operations in the interim. Any material interruption in our computer systems could have a material adverse effect on our business or results of operations.

From time to time, we make technology investments to improve or replace our information processes and systems that are key to managing our business. The risk of system disruption is increased when system changes are undertaken, although we believe that our change management process can mitigate this risk. The potential problems and interruptions associated with implementing technology initiatives could disrupt or reduce the efficiency of our operations in the short term. In addition, these initiatives might not provide the anticipated benefits or may provide them on a delayed schedule or at a higher cost.

We could be subject to additional tax liabilities.

We compute our income tax provision based on enacted tax rates in the countries in which we operate. As the tax rates vary among countries, a change in earnings attributable to the various jurisdictions in which we operate could result in an unfavorable change in our overall tax provision. Additionally, changes in tax laws, increases in the enacted tax rates, adverse outcomes in connection with tax audits in any jurisdiction, including transfer pricing disputes, or any change in the pronouncements relating to accounting for income taxes could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

We file federal and state tax returns in the United States and various other tax returns in foreign jurisdictions. The preparation of these tax returns requires us to interpret the applicable tax laws and regulations in effect in such jurisdictions, which affects the amount of tax paid by us. We, in consultation with our tax advisors, base our tax returns on interpretations that we believe to be reasonable under the prevailing circumstances. The tax returns, however, are subject to routine reviews by the various taxing authorities in the jurisdictions in which we file our returns. As part of these reviews, a taxing authority may disagree with respect to the interpretations we used to calculate our tax liability and therefore require us pay additional taxes.

         

A few of our stockholders own approximately 27.8% of our voting stock as of August 31, 2015 , which may make it difficult to complete some corporate transactions without their support and may impede a change in control.

Robert E. Price, the Company’s Chairman of the Board, and affiliates of Mr. Price, including Price Charities, The Price Group, LLC and various trusts, collectively beneficially own approximately 27.8% of our outstanding shares of common stock. As a result of their beneficial ownership, these stockholders have the ability to significantly affect the outcome of all matters submitted to our stockholders for approval, including the election of directors. In addition, this ownership could discourage the acquisition of our common stock by potential investors and could have an anti-takeover effect, possibly depressing the trading price of our common stock. 

  

Failure to attract and retain qualified employees, increases in wage and benefit costs, changes in laws and other labor issues could materially adversely affect our financial performance.

Our success depends to a significant degree on the continued contributions of members of our senior management and other key operations, merchandising and administrative personnel, and the loss of any such person(s) could have a material adverse effect on our business. We must develop and retain a growing number of qualified employees, while controlling related labor costs and maintaining our core values. We compete with other retail and non-retail businesses for these employees and invest significant resources in training and motivating them. There is no assurance that we will be able to adequately develop, retain and attract highly qualified employees in the future, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. We do not maintain key man insurance.

We face the possibility of operational interruptions related to union work stoppages. We currently have labor unions in three of our subsidiaries (Trinidad, Barbados, and Panama). A work stoppage or other limitation on operations from union or other labor related matters could occur for any number of reasons, including as a result of disputes under existing collective bargaining agreements with labor unions or in connection with negotiation of new collective bargaining agreements. A lengthy work stoppage

or significant limitation on operations could have a substantial adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

  We are subject to volatility in foreign currency exchange rates.

As of August 31, 2015, we had a total of 37 warehouse clubs operating in 12 foreign countries and one U.S. territory, 29 of which operate under currencies other than the U.S. dollar. For fiscal year 2015 , approximately 79% of our net warehouse club sales were in foreign currencies. We may enter into additional foreign countries in the future or open additional locations in existing countries, which may increase the percentage of net warehouse sales denominated in foreign currencies. 

Our consolidated financial statements are denominated in U.S. dollars, and to prepare those financial statements we must translate the amounts of the assets, liabilities, net sales, other revenues and expenses of our operations outside of the U.S. from foreign currencies into U.S. dollars using exchange rates for the current period. As a result of such translations, future fluctuations in currency exchange rate over time that are unfavorable to us may result in our consolidated financial statements reflecting significant adverse period-over-period changes in our financial performance. Such unfavorable currency exchange rate fluctuations will have an adverse effect on our reported consolidated results of operations.

In addition, devaluing foreign local currencies compared to the U.S. dollar could negatively impact the purchasing power of our members for imported merchandise in those countries.  For example, during fiscal year 2015, the Colombian peso devalued approximately 60.3% compared to the U.S. dollar, which negatively affected sales and margins in that market. Volatility and uncertainties regarding the currencies and economic conditions in the countries where we operate could have a material impact on our operations in future periods.

 

We face the risk of exposure to product liability claims, a product recall and adverse publicity.

We market and distribute products purchased from third-party suppliers and products prepared by us for resale, including meat, dairy and other food products, which exposes us to the risk of product liability claims, a product recall and adverse publicity. We may inadvertently redistribute food products or prepare food products that are contaminated, which may result in illness, injury or death if the contaminants are not eliminated by processing at the food service or consumer level. We generally seek contractual indemnification and proof of insurance from our major suppliers and carry product liability insurance for all products sold to our members by us. However, if we do not have adequate insurance or contractual indemnification available, product liability claims relating to products that are contaminated or otherwise harmful could have a material adverse effect on our ability to successfully market our products and on our financial condition and results of operations. In addition, even if a product liability claim is not successful or is not fully pursued, the negative publicity surrounding a product recall or any assertion that our products caused illness or injury could have a material adverse effect on our reputation with existing and potential members and on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Any failure to maintain the security of the information relating to our company, members, employees and vendors that we hold, whether as a result of cybersecurity attacks on our information systems, failure of internal controls, employee negligence or malfeasance or otherwise, could damage our reputation with members, employees, vendors and others, could cause us to incur substantial additional costs and to become subject to litigation and could materially adversely affect our operating results.

We receive and store in our digital information systems certain personal information about our members, and we receive and store personal information concerning our employees and vendors. We also utilize third-party service providers for a variety of reasons, including, without limitation, cloud services, back-office support, and other functions. In addition, our online operations and our websites in certain of our foreign markets depend upon the secure transmission of confidential information over public networks, including information permitting cashless payments. Each year, computer hackers, cyber terrorists, and others make numerous attempts to access the information stored in companies’ information systems.

We or our third-party service providers may be unable to anticipate one or more of the rapidly evolving and increasingly sophisticated means by which computer hackers, cyber terrorists and others may attempt to defeat our security measures or those of our third-party service providers and breach our or our third party service providers' information systems. Cyber threats are rapidly evolving and are becoming increasingly sophisticated. As cyber threats evolve and become more difficult to detect and successfully defend against, one or more cyber threats might defeat our security measures or those of our third-party service providers in the future and obtain the personal information of members, employees and vendors that we hold or to which our third-party service providers have access, and we or our third-party service providers may not discover any security breach and loss of information for a significant period of time after the security breach occurs. Moreover, associate error or malfeasance, faulty password management or other irregularities may result in a defeat of our, or of our third-party service providers’, security measures and breach our, or of our third-party service providers’, information systems (whether digital or otherwise).

Any breach of our security measures or those of our third-party service providers and loss of our confidential information, which could be undetected for a period of time, or any failure by us to comply with applicable privacy and information security laws and regulations could cause us to incur significant costs to protect any members whose personal data was compromised and to restore member confidence in us and to make changes to our information systems and administrative processes to address security issues and compliance with applicable laws and regulations.

In addition, such events could materially adversely affect our reputation with our members, employees, vendors and stockholders, as well as our operations, results of operations, financial condition and liquidity, could result in the release to the public of confidential information about our operations and financial condition and performance and could result in litigation against us or the imposition of penalties or liabilities. Moreover, a security breach could require us to devote significant management resources to address the problems created by the security breach and to expend significant additional resources to upgrade further the security measures that we employ to guard such important personal information against cyberattacks and other attempts to access such information and could result in a disruption of our operations.

We are subject to payment related risks.

We rely on third parties to provide payment transaction processing services, including the processing of credit and debit cards and the processing of payments to vendors. Our business could be disrupted if these companies become unwilling or unable to provide these services to us. We are also subject to payment card association rules and network operating rules, including data security rules, certification requirements and rules governing electronic funds transfers, which could change over time. If we fail to comply with these rules or transaction processing requirements, we may not be able to accept certain payment methods. In addition, if our internal systems are breached or compromised, we may be liable for banks’ compromised card re-issuance costs, subject to fines and higher transaction fees and lose our ability to accept credit and/or debit card payments from our members, and our business and operating results could be adversely affected.

Changes in accounting standards and assumptions, estimates and judgments by management related to complex accounting matters could significantly affect our financial condition and results of operations.

Generally accepted accounting principles and related accounting pronouncements, implementation guidelines and interpretations with regard to a wide range of matters that are relevant to our business are highly complex and involve many subjective assumptions, estimates and judgments by our management. These include, but are not limited to, revenue recognition, impairment of long-lived assets, goodwill, merchandise inventories, vendor rebates and other vendor consideration, income taxes, unclaimed property laws and litigation, and other contingent liabilities. Changes in these rules or their interpretation or changes in underlying assumptions, estimates or judgments by our management could significantly change our reported or expected financial performance.

 

We face increased public company compliance risks and compliance risks related to our international operations.

In the United States and within the international markets where we operate, there are multiple laws and regulations that relate to our business and operations. These laws and regulations are subject to change, and any failure by us to effectively manage our operations and reporting obligations as required by the various laws and regulations can result in our incurring significant legal costs and fines as well as disruptions to our business and operations. Such failure could also result in investors’ loss of confidence in us, which could have a material adverse effect on our stock price.

In foreign countries in which we have operations, a risk exists that our employees, contractors or agents could, in contravention of our policies, engage in business practices prohibited by U.S. laws and regulations applicable to us, such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the laws and regulations of other countries. We maintain policies prohibiting such business practices and have in place global anti-corruption compliance programs designed to ensure compliance with these laws and regulations. Nevertheless, we remain subject to the risk that one or more of our employees, contractors or agents, including those based in or from countries where practices that violate such U.S. laws and regulations or the laws and regulations of other countries may be customary, will engage in business practices that are prohibited by our policies, circumvent our compliance programs and, by doing so, violate such laws and regulations. Any such violations, even if prohibited by our internal policies, could adversely affect our business or financial performance.

    

Any failure to effectively implement necessary or appropriate new or improved internal controls, to resolve difficulties encountered in their implementation or remediate identified material weaknesses could harm our operating results, cause us to fail to meet reporting obligations, result in management being required to give a qualified assessment of our internal controls over financial reporting or the our independent auditors providing an adverse opinion regarding their attestation of the effectiveness of our internal controls over financial reporting. Any such result could cause investors to lose confidence in our reported financial information, which could have a material adverse effect on our stock price.

If remediation costs or hazardous substance contamination levels at certain properties for which we maintain financial responsibility exceed management’s current expectations, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely impacted.

In connection with our spin-off from Price Enterprises, Inc., or PEI, in 1997, we agreed to indemnify PEI for all of PEI's liabilities (including indemnification obligations for environmental liabilities) arising out of PEI's prior ownership of certain properties. Our ownership of real properties and our agreement to indemnify PEI could subject us to certain environmental liabilities. Certain of these properties are located in areas of current or former industrial activity, where environmental contamination may have occurred. We monitor the soil and groundwater at these locations as may be required by law. If we were to incur costs for remediating contamination at these sites which exceed management’s current expectations, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely impacted.