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30 Woodbourne Avenue, Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda

(441) 279-5700

(Address, including zip code, and telephone number, including area code, of Registrant's principal executive office)

None

(Former name, former address and former fiscal year, if changed since last report)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is a well-known seasoned issuer, as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act. Yes ý    No o

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is not required to file reports pursuant to Section 13 or Section 15(d) of the Act. Yes o    No ý

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant: (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the Registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes ý    No o

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files). Yes ý    No o

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See the definitions of "large accelerated filer," "accelerated filer," "smaller reporting company," and "emerging growth company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

Large accelerated filer

x

Accelerated filer

o

Non-accelerated filer

o

Smaller reporting company

☐

Emerging growth company

☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. o

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has filed a report on and attestation to its management’s assessment of the effectiveness of its internal control over financial reporting under Section 404(b) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (15 U.S.C. 7262(b)) by the registered public accounting firm that prepared or issued its audit report. x

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ☐    No ý

The aggregate market value of Common Shares held by non-affiliates of the Registrant as of the close of business on June 30, 2020 was $1,981,936,850 (based upon the closing price of the Registrant's shares on the New York Stock Exchange on that date, which was $24.41). For purposes of this information, the outstanding Common Shares which were owned by all directors and executive officers of the Registrant were deemed to be the only shares of Common Shares held by affiliates.

As of February 23, 2021, 76,651,036 Common Shares, par value $0.01 per share, were outstanding (including 68,098 unvested restricted shares).

DOCUMENTS INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE

Certain portions of Registrant's definitive proxy statement relating to its 2020 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders are incorporated by reference to Part III of this report.

 

Forward Looking Statements

This Form 10-K contains information that includes or is based upon forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward looking statements give the expectations or forecasts of future events of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL) and its subsidiaries (collectively with AGL, Assured Guaranty or the Company). These statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and relate to future operating or financial performance.

 

Any or all of Assured Guaranty’s forward looking statements herein are based on current expectations and the current economic environment and may turn out to be incorrect. Assured Guaranty’s actual results may vary materially. Among factors that could cause actual results to differ adversely are:

 

•the development, course and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and the governmental and private actions taken in response, and the global consequences of the pandemic and such actions, including their impact on the factors listed below;

•changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates, credit spreads or general economic conditions;

•developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect insured obligors’ repayment rates, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, investments of Assured Guaranty or assets it manages;

•reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance;

•the loss of investors in Assured Guaranty's asset management strategies or the failure to attract new investors to Assured Guaranty's asset management business;

•the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures;

•insured losses in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures;

•increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry;

•poor performance of Assured Guaranty's asset management strategies compared to the performance of the asset management strategies of Assured Guaranty's competitors;

•the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for its investment portfolio, including alternative investments and investments it manages, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to reduced liquidity at a time it requires liquidity or to unanticipated consequences;

•the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, most of its contracts written in credit default swap (CDS) form, and variable interest entities (VIEs) as well as on the mark-to-market of assets Assured Guaranty manages;

•rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its insurance subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s insurance subsidiaries have insured;

•the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms;

•changes in applicable accounting policies or practices;

•changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions;

•the failure of Assured Guaranty to successfully integrate the business of BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (BlueMountain, now known as Assured Investment Management LLC) and its associated entities;

•the possibility that acquisitions made by Assured Guaranty, including its acquisition of BlueMountain (BlueMountain Acquisition), do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences;

•difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy;

•loss of key personnel;

•the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures;

•natural or man-made catastrophes or pandemics;

•other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the United States (U.S.) Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC);

•other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and

•management’s response to these factors.

The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive, and should be read in conjunction with the other cautionary statements that are included in this Form 10-K. The Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law. Investors are advised, however, to consult any further disclosures the Company makes on related subjects in the Company’s reports filed with the SEC.

 

If one or more of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the Company’s underlying assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual results may vary materially from what the Company projected. Any forward looking statements in this Form 10-K reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and are subject to these and other risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to its operations, results of operations, growth strategy and liquidity.

 

For these statements, the Company claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the Securities Act), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act).

Convention

 

Unless otherwise noted, ratings on Assured Guaranty's insured portfolio and on bonds or notes purchased pursuant to loss mitigation strategies (loss mitigation securities) are Assured Guaranty’s internal ratings. Internal credit ratings are expressed on a rating scale similar to that used by the rating agencies and generally reflect an approach similar to that employed by the rating agencies, except that Assured Guaranty's internal credit ratings focus on future performance, rather than lifetime performance.

In addition, unless otherwise noted, the Company excludes amounts from its outstanding insured par and debt service relating to securities or assets owned by the Company as a result of loss mitigation strategies, including loss mitigation securities held in the investment portfolio. The Company manages the loss mitigation securities as investments and not insurance exposure.

Also, unless otherwise noted, the Company includes as part of its asset management business the management of collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) managed by BlueMountain Fuji Management, LLC (BM Fuji). The Company is not the investment manager of BM Fuji-advised CLOs, but rather has entered into a services agreement and a secondment agreement with BM Fuji pursuant to which the Company provides certain services associated with the management of BM Fuji-advised CLOs and acts in the capacity of service provider.

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FORM 10-K

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

						Page
PART I						6
Item 1.			Business			6
			Overview			6
			Insurance Segment			7
			Support of AGUK and AGE			8
			Insurance Portfolio			10
			Exposure Limits, Underwriting Procedures, and Credit Policy			13
			Importance of Financial Strength Ratings			16
			Competition			17
			Asset Management Segment			18
			Products			18
			Competition			21
			Asset Management Revenues			21
			Investment Portfolio			21
			Risk Management Procedures			22
			Regulation			26
			Human Capital Management			36
			Tax Matters			37
			Description of Share Capital			44
			Other Provisions of AGL's Bye-Laws			45
			Available Information			46
Item 1A.			Risk Factors			47
			Risks Related to Economic, Market and Political Conditions and Natural Phenomena			49
			Risks Related to Estimates, Assumptions and Valuations			52
			Strategic Risks			53
			Operational Risks			55
			Risks Related to Taxation			59
			Risks Related to GAAP, Applicable Law and Litigation			62
			Risks Related to AGL's Common Shares			64
Item 1B.			Unresolved Staff Comments			65
Item 2.			Properties			65
Item 3.			Legal Proceedings			66
Item 4.			Mine Safety Disclosures			67
PART II						69
Item 5.			Market for Registrant's Common Equity, Related Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities			69
Item 6.			Selected Financial Data			71
Item 7.			Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations			71
			Overview			71
			Business			71
			Economic Environment			72
			Key Business Strategies			74
			Executive Summary			78
			Financial Performance of Assured Guaranty			79
			Other Matters			82
			Results of Operations			83
			Critical Accounting Estimates			83
			Business Segments			84
			Results of Operations by Segment			85
			Insurance Segment Results			86
			Asset Management Segment Results			94
			Corporate Division Results			99
			Other			99
			Reconciliation to GAAP			100
			Non-GAAP Financial Measures			102
			Insured Portfolio			107
			Liquidity and Capital Resources			113
			AGL and its U.S Holding Companies			113
			Insurance Subsidiaries			117
			Investment Portfolio			120
			AssuredIM			122
			Lease Obligations			122
			Consolidated VIEs			122
			Consolidated Cash Flows			123
Item 7A.			Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk			124
Item 8.			Financial Statements and Supplementary Data			129
			Report of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm			130
			Consolidated Balance Sheets as of December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2019			132
			Consolidated Statements of Operations for Years Ended December 31, 2020, 2019 and 2018			133
			Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income (Loss) for Years Ended December 31, 2020, 2019 and 2018			134
			Consolidated Statement of Shareholders’ Equity for Years Ended December 31, 2020, 2019 and 2018			135
			Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows for Years Ended December 31, 2020, 2019 and 2018			136
			Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements			138
			1. Business and Basis of Presentation			138
			2. Business Combinations and Assumption of Insured Portfolio			141
			3. Segment Information			143
			4. Outstanding Insurance Exposure			147
			5. Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)			166
			6. Contracts Accounted for as Insurance			177
			7. Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives			187
			8. Reinsurance			189
			9. Investments and Cash			192
			10. Variable Interest Entities			202
			11. Fair Value Measurement			210
			12. Asset Management Fees			225
			13. Goodwill and other Intangible Assets			226
			14. Long-Term Debt and Credit Facilities			228
			15. Employee Benefit Plans			232
			16. Income Taxes			236
			17. Insurance Company Regulatory Requirements			241
			18. Related Party Transactions			244
			19. Leases and Commitments and Contingencies			245
			20. Shareholders' Equity			248
			21. Other Comprehensive Income			250
			22. Earnings Per Share			253
			23. Parent Company			254
Item 9.			Changes in and Disagreements With Accountants on Accounting and Financial Disclosure			255
Item 9A.			Controls and Procedures			255
Item 9B.			Other Information			256
PART III						257
Item 10.			Directors, Executive Officers and Corporate Governance			257
Item 11.			Executive Compensation			257
Item 12.			Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and Related Stockholder Matters			257
Item 13.			Certain Relationships and Related Transactions, and Director Independence			257
Item 14.			Principal Accounting Fees and Services			257
PART IV						258
Item 15.			Exhibits, Financial Statement Schedules			258
Item 16.			Form 10-K Summary			264
Signatures						265